A new national survey conducted by Liaison Strategies reveals that if a federal election were held today, the Liberal Party would secure a substantial nine-percentage-point lead over the Conservative Party. The poll, which surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from February 2 to 14, 2026, indicates that among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals hold 43% support, while the Conservatives stand at 34%.
Regional and Demographic Breakdown
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, commented on the findings, stating, "It looks like we are settling into a new normal with the Liberals consistently posting strong leads over the Conservatives. So far, we don't see very much movement." Regionally, the Liberals demonstrate robust support in Atlantic Canada at 59% and Ontario at 47%. Conversely, the Conservatives maintain their stronghold in Alberta with 53% support.
Demographically, the Liberals see their highest levels of support among voters aged 50-64, where they achieve 51% backing. The Conservatives are most competitive in the younger age brackets, being tied or close to the Liberals among voters aged 18-34 and 35-49.
Other Party Support and Leader Approval Ratings
The New Democratic Party (NDP) follows with 10% support nationally, while the Bloc Quebecois holds 6%. The Green Party and the People's Party (PPC) are tied at 2% each. The survey also highlights significant differences in leader approval ratings.
Carney's High Approval vs. Poilievre's Challenges
Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to enjoy strong public support, with a national approval rating of 63%. Only 32% of Canadians disapprove of his performance, while 5% remain unsure. Carney's approval is highest in Ontario at 70% and among those aged 65 and older at 68%.
In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre faces a net unfavourable rating. Currently, 39% of Canadians view him favourably, while 52% hold an unfavourable view. His highest favourability is found in Alberta at 55% and among voters aged 18–34 at 47%.
Methodology and Margin of Error
The poll utilized Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology and has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. This data provides a snapshot of current political sentiments as the country navigates the post-2025 federal election landscape.
