Following the initial signing of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the conflict in Iran on Sunday, Iranian officials described it as a complete and total victory. After the document was finally made public on Wednesday, it is hard to argue with that assessment.
War Goals Unmet
The United States and Israel entered the war emphasizing the need to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, degrade its ballistic missile capabilities, halt support for terrorist proxies, and perhaps create conditions for regime change. Yet the MOU falls short on all fronts.
The fate of the Iranian nuclear program remains uncertain. Iran merely reiterated that it “shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons,” a stance it has long held publicly while enriching uranium to near-weapons grade. A final agreement is to be negotiated over the next two months, likely longer.
The extraction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium also seems unlikely. The deal only requires that the “minimum” amount be down-blended “on site under the supervision” of the International Atomic Energy Agency. At a press conference on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the significance of the nuclear material, referring to it as “nuclear dust” and claiming “it’s actually not valuable.”
Trump claimed that all enriched uranium is now buried under mountains and only the U.S., and perhaps China, can recover it. However, it has not been publicly confirmed that Iran’s stockpile is at those sites, and Iran is widely believed to hold caches at other locations.
Missiles and Terrorism Ignored
Noticeably absent from the MOU is any discussion of Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for terrorism. The document explicitly states that upcoming negotiations will focus “exclusively” on the issues contained within it.
Defending this retreat from initial war goals, Trump claimed, “Missiles aren’t the problem … they hurt a little location, but they don’t blow up the planet.” He added, “If other countries have them, it’s a little bit unfair for (the Iranians) not to have some,” echoing an argument akin to children wanting equal candy. This message is sure to trouble Gulf capitals that endured Iranian rocket attacks during the month-long war.
Many were already concerned that Washington did not do more to protect them. Trump’s admission that the U.S. would have “run out” of ammunition within “about four weeks” only serves to degrade regional alliances and embolden foes.
The Iranians have emerged from this war better off than when they went in. The MOU represents a clear victory for Tehran, while the U.S. and Israel have little to show for their efforts.
