CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten warned on Thursday that Republicans who back President Donald Trump's Iran war policy might be endangering their House majority in the upcoming midterm elections.
"The most unpopular war at the start of the war that I could ever find, ever, has become even more unpopular," Enten said.
On Wednesday, four Republican lawmakers broke ranks with their party to support a Democratic-led war powers resolution requiring Trump to obtain congressional approval before additional military action against Iran.
According to Enten, the conflict's net approval rating began at -9 percentage points, based on an average of polls from CBS News, Fox News, and Ipsos. This figure has since dropped to -23, recent surveys indicate.
Among independent voters, the net approval rating fell from -23 at the outset to -40.
"So those Republicans who, in fact, did not vote with the renegade Republicans, they are helping to put that Republican majority — which was already at great risk in the House — in even more risk," Enten stated.
"It's on the wrong trajectory right now," said CNN's John Berman, referencing the net approval rating.
"This is the wrong place," Enten added. "You want to be going up, not down."
A majority of Americans (63%) oppose presidents using military force without congressional approval, according to a New York Times poll. Among independents, that figure reaches 72%.
"Independents, of course, have been such an important part of the president's decaying political coalition," Enten noted. "They were pretty much even in the 2024 election, and they have shifted massively against him and especially on this war."
Furthermore, a new Marquette University Law School poll shows that 77% of Americans favor continuing the ceasefire and negotiations with Iran. This includes nearly all Democrats (96%), a strong majority of independents (81%), and more than half of Republicans.
"This is the rare trifecta," Enten said.
"They like this idea. They do not, in fact, want a re-upstart of, let's say, much more force going on in the Middle East, much more force going on in Iran. They want the current condition to hold, whatever exactly you call it."
