A new Postmedia-Leger poll reveals that fewer than half of Albertans are certain they would continue living in their province should it separate from Canada. The survey, conducted between May 29 and June 1, found that 39 per cent of respondents would stay in a newly independent Alberta, while 38 per cent said they would move elsewhere in Canada. Nineteen per cent were unsure, and two per cent would leave the country entirely.
The results come as Alberta prepares for a referendum later this year that will decide whether the province wants to vote on secession. Premier Danielle Smith has confirmed that a separation-related question will appear on the October ballot, alongside nine other questions on issues such as immigration and Senate reform.
Comparison with Quebec
In contrast, Quebecers are more committed to independence. According to the same poll, 56 per cent of Quebec respondents said they would remain in a newly independent Quebec, while only 24 per cent would move to another part of Canada. This suggests stronger attachment to the separatist cause in Quebec than in Alberta.
Nationally, 10 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta and Quebec said they would move to an independent Alberta, while only one per cent would move to an independent Quebec.
Economic and identity impacts
Respondents widely viewed Alberta's separation as having a greater economic impact on Canada than Quebec's. Thirty-three per cent said Alberta's exit would have the biggest negative economic effect, compared to eight per cent for Quebec. Forty-five per cent said the impact would be equal, and 14 per cent did not know.
Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger's central Canada operations, noted that the results reflect the heightened focus on Alberta's economy under Prime Minister Mark Carney, particularly the emphasis on natural resources to reduce Canada's dependence on U.S. trade. He cautioned that the survey should be seen as a gauge of emotions rather than actual moving intentions.
On national identity, 17 per cent said Quebec's departure would have the greatest impact, while 15 per cent said Alberta's would. A majority (54 per cent) said the impact would be equal.
Context of Alberta separatism
Separatist sentiments in Alberta have reached new highs in recent years, driven by frustrations over the province's perceived treatment within Confederation. The poll underscores the deep divisions and uncertainties surrounding the independence movement.
