As polls prepare to close on Monday evening, the political fate of the Mark Carney Liberals hangs in the balance, with federal byelections in key ridings set to determine whether they achieve majority control in the House of Commons. The stakes are high, as a single victory could shift the balance of power in Ottawa.
Byelection Details and Timing
Voters are casting ballots in the Toronto-area ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale, as well as in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, located north of the Island of Montreal. Polls are scheduled to close at 8:30 p.m., with results expected to flow in shortly afterward. However, the Terrebonne race may face delays due to the Longest Ballot protest group's activities, adding an element of uncertainty to the outcome.
If the Liberals secure one of these seats, they will gain a majority in the House of Commons, enabling them to pass legislation more smoothly. Winning all three would further solidify their position, reducing reliance on Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia to break ties in close votes.
Floor-Crossing Controversies and Seat Totals
The Liberals' pursuit of a majority has intensified following recent floor-crossings by opposition MPs. In the past few months, four Conservatives and former NDP MP Lori Idlout have defected to join the Liberal ranks. The most recent switch occurred last week when Sarnia-area MP Marilyn Gladu left the Tories, bringing the Liberal seat count to 171 in the 343-seat House of Commons.
To pass bills independently without opposition support, the Liberals need 172 seats. However, achieving a larger margin is crucial to prevent attempts by other parties to stall their legislative agenda. These floor-crossings have sparked accusations of "backroom deals," with Conservative MP Billy Morin alleging that the Liberals attempted to "poach" him. Liberal MP Wayne Long has denied these claims, stating he is unaware of any further potential defections.
Safe Liberal Seats in Toronto
The Toronto ridings are considered strongholds for the Liberals, now vacant after two prominent former cabinet ministers departed for international roles. In University—Rosedale, former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland resigned on January 9 to take an advisory position in Ukraine, assisting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with economic development. Freeland, who also served as finance minister, is set to lead the Rhodes Trust in Oxford, England, this summer, ending her representation of the riding since 2015.
Similarly, Scarborough Southwest will elect a new MP for the first time since 2015, following the resignation of former Toronto Police chief Bill Blair. After an 11-year tenure, Blair stepped down to become Canada's next high commissioner to the United Kingdom, leaving the seat open for a fresh face.
Intense Battle in Terrebonne
The most competitive race is unfolding in Terrebonne, where the Liberals previously won by a single vote in the 2025 general election, only to have the result overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada due to mail-in ballot issues. With approximately 20% voter turnout in advance polling, according to reports, the Liberals have deployed staffers, Quebec ministers, and even Prime Minister Mark Carney to campaign for candidate Tatiana Auguste.
Bloc Quebecois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagne, who represented the riding from 2021 to 2025, is also in the running, setting the stage for a tight contest. The outcome here could be pivotal in determining the overall balance of power in Parliament.
As the nation watches, these byelections not only reflect shifting political allegiances but also highlight the ongoing debates over loyalty and strategy in Canadian politics. The results will shape the legislative landscape for the coming months, with implications for policy-making and governance across the country.
