On Saturday, Liberals in Scarborough Southwest will select their candidate for the upcoming provincial byelection. The decision carries weight beyond the riding: it could determine the future of Nathaniel Erskine-Smith's bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership.
Erskine-Smith's leadership ambitions at stake
Erskine-Smith, the federal Liberal MP for Beaches-East York, is considered a front-runner for the party leadership. However, he may not win the local nomination due to internal party divisions. Many Ontario Liberals reportedly want anyone but Erskine-Smith to lead them.
First elected as a Liberal MP in 2015, Erskine-Smith cultivated a maverick persona, often bucking party lines. While this approach worked for a backbencher, critics argue it is unsuitable for a leader. In 2023, he lost the Ontario Liberal leadership to Bonnie Crombie on the final ballot, 53.4% to 46.6%.
Now, Erskine-Smith is seeking another chance, but he must first secure the nomination in Scarborough Southwest. Normally, a leadership candidate would face little opposition in their home riding, but Erskine-Smith's path is uncertain.
Challengers in the race
Also on the ballot are lawyer Qadira Jackson, small business owner Ahsanul Hafiz, and immigration consultant Mahmuda Nasrin. None have Erskine-Smith's name recognition, yet the outcome is far from predictable.
Earlier this week, the Ontario Liberal Party removed over 1,800 potential voters, most believed to be aligned with Erskine-Smith, citing irregularities. Additionally, his opponents have strong local ties.
Qadira Jackson ran for the Liberals in this riding in the 2025 provincial election, finishing third. The Liberals have not won Scarborough Southwest since Lorenzo Berardinetti under Kathleen Wynne in 2014.
Ahsanul Hafiz, a Bangladeshi-Canadian immigrant who owns dozens of Domino's Pizza franchises across Ontario, is seen as a strong contender. He has served on the Liberal Party of Canada's executive and has been organizing for some time. In a riding with a significant Bangladeshi community, Hafiz is considered the one to beat.
What's at stake
Before Erskine-Smith can challenge rivals like Etobicoke MPP Lee Fairclough or former MP Navdeep Bains for the leadership, he must win in Scarborough Southwest. Failure to secure the nomination would effectively end his leadership aspirations.
Premier Doug Ford's team reportedly relishes the prospect of facing Erskine-Smith, believing Ford could easily defeat him in a general election. Both camps will be watching Saturday's vote closely.
