CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday highlighted that Democratic turnout in this year's primaries could signal a party takeover of the U.S. House in November. “We’re about halfway through the primary season so far, and this is perhaps the best sign for Democrats, because when people are going out there to vote, they’re voting Democratic to a historic degree,” Enten said.
Primary Turnout Breakdown
According to Enten, citing data from CNN’s Edward Wu, Democrats hold a 57% share of votes cast in primaries so far, compared to 43% for Republicans. This marks a significant shift from 2022, when Republicans held a 53% majority versus Democrats' 47%. In the 2018 midterm cycle, Democrats had a 54% primary vote share before reclaiming the House.
Historical Context
Enten emphasized that since 2006, the party with greater primary turnout has consistently won the House in midterm elections. “When your side comes out and votes more in the primary, it forecasts very good fortunes come the fall in midterm elections,” he told CNN’s John Berman. “When more of you turn out, you take back the House or hold onto the House.”
Implications for November
Enten declared, “This is a historically strong position for Democrats. The energy is on the Democratic side of the aisle.” The data suggests that if current trends hold, Democrats are well-positioned to flip the House, echoing the 2018 wave that saw them gain 41 seats.
