Prime Minister Mark Carney has been actively seeking advice from Ontario Premier Doug Ford regarding the potential for calling an early federal election this spring, according to sources familiar with their conversations. This development comes as federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre maintains a notably distant relationship with the influential premier, raising questions about internal party dynamics.
Strategic Discussions Between Carney and Ford
The Globe and Mail first reported on Monday that Ford had floated the idea of a snap federal election during talks with Carney over recent weeks. While Carney's interest in an early election has been signaled for some time, his direct consultation with Ford represents a significant political development.
"There are polls and people talk," said one Ford confidante, confirming the substance of the discussions between the two leaders.
Ford's Successful Early Election Experience
Ford reportedly shared with Carney his successful experience calling an early provincial election last year, which resulted in a stable majority government for his Progressive Conservatives. Ford's pitch to Ontario voters centered on securing a mandate to protect the province from potential economic threats posed by former U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
While Ford's confidante claims the premier isn't offering advice to support or encourage Carney specifically, many federal Conservatives view these discussions as effectively constituting an endorsement of the Liberal prime minister's potential election strategy.
Poilievre's Strained Relationship with Ford
The Conservative leader's relationship with Ford remains notably strained, with sources indicating Poilievre has made minimal effort to establish meaningful communication with the premier. Prior to last April's election, Poilievre reportedly made only a single phone call to Ford after years of maintaining distance, while allowing his top lieutenants to openly criticize the premier.
Since the election, there have been perhaps one or two phone calls between the two leaders, but no serious attempt to build a working relationship according to those familiar with the situation.
Conservative Party Dynamics
During the Conservative Party convention in Calgary that began on January 28, discussions about Carney's potential early election call were widespread among delegates. Many seasoned political operatives acknowledged that if they were in Carney's position, they too would consider a spring election.
This sentiment was reinforced by a Leger poll conducted just before the premiers' meetings with Carney in late January, which showed the Liberals leading with 47% national popular support compared to 38% for the Conservatives.
Ford's Political Pragmatism
Observers note that Ford operates pragmatically as premier, recognizing the necessity of working with whichever party holds federal power. This approach mirrors his working relationship with Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow, despite his calls for change at city hall.
"If Poilievre called Ford and asked him for election advice, he'd get it, but that hasn't happened," noted one political insider familiar with the dynamics between the conservative leaders.
Poilievre's Outreach Efforts
The Conservative leader has made some attempts to build political bridges, including reaching out to Brampton Mayor and former CPC leadership contender Patrick Brown. While Poilievre didn't attend the Nova Scotia PC convention recently, key representatives from his team were present.
However, when it comes to Ford—the most successful conservative politician in Canada currently, having won three straight majority governments—Poilievre's team appears to be missing opportunities to tap into this political success.
Political Implications
The discussions between Carney and Ford have sparked frustration among federal Conservatives who believe their leader should be the one consulting with the successful Ontario premier. Ford's political track record suggests he would likely win a fourth majority if an election were held today, making his insights particularly valuable for any political strategist.
As speculation about a potential spring election continues to dominate political conversations in Ottawa and provincial capitals, the dynamics between these three key political figures will likely influence strategic decisions in the coming months.
