Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday that continued discussion of Alberta separation could have lasting economic and business repercussions for Canada.
Carney's Remarks on Investment Uncertainty
"This type of uncertainty is unhelpful for long-term investment decisions," Carney stated, before shifting focus to his government's response to such sentiments. He emphasized the need to make the federation work by creating jobs, fostering prosperity, and reducing emissions.
Carney also highlighted ongoing progress toward constructing a new pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast, underscoring the importance of cooperative federalism. "We work together. What we're focused on is making the federation work with respect to a variety of aspects of energy," he said. "It's much more than a pipeline."
Lessons from Brexit and Quebec
Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, noted that he plans to campaign for national unity ahead of the Oct. 19 referendum. Drawing on his experience as governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit vote a decade ago, he warned: "They're still, 10 years later, trying to undo what people didn't think they were voting for. In these separation issues, it is often advanced that 'vote for this and it's a free option. Vote for this and we will strengthen our hand in future negotiation.' That is a very dangerous bluff."
Researchers estimate the U.K. economy has shrunk between 4% and 8% following its exit from the European Union.
Economic 'Doom Loop'
University of Alberta economist Chetan Dave echoed Carney's concerns, stating that businesses are wary of uncertainty surrounding taxes, legal structures, and politics. "It prevents them from making long-term investments to begin with," Dave said. "They would just rather invest in areas of the world where they'll have more certainty related to how they're even going to set up business to begin with, let alone generate revenues."
Dave pointed to Quebec's separation referendums in 1980 and 1995 as examples of lasting economic damage. "When a lot of these opportunities leave your province or your jurisdiction, government is elected to help people, and they end up having to become, for lack of a better term, that much more socialist because now people don't even have work, or as high incomes, and it becomes almost like a doom loop."
Alberta Minister Acknowledges Impact
Speaking at a news conference in Fort McMurray, Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean admitted that separation talk could affect investment. "I don't think it's helpful when people are looking at investing. It certainly brings uncertainty," Jean said, while also noting that prior federal government policies had negatively impacted investor confidence.
