Among the many disorienting upheavals in global trade and international relations since U.S. President Donald Trump's first inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017, a single dominant trend line emerges: the expansion and consolidation of the global reach of the People's Republic of China, and the decline of the United States as the lodestar of the world's democracies.
A Pattern of Decline
The pattern continued mostly without interruption during Joe Biden's presidency, but after Trump's re-election in November 2024, the U.S. went into geopolitical free fall. There has been considerable highbrow speculation about whether this state of affairs is merely a morbid interregnum or the irreparable 'rupture' that Prime Minister Mark Carney has described, heralding the Beijing-led 'new world order' that he appears to look forward to.
NATO and European Defense
Either way, the U.S. is no longer central to strategic planning among the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, either as a source of military hardware or even as a reliable ally. It is no small matter that in the wake of Trump's persistent threats to annex Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a leading NATO member, Danish troops arrived in Greenland with blood supplies, explosives and contingency plans to blow up Greenland's airfields in the event of an American invasion.
Turning away from American arms manufacturers, last month the European Union unveiled its ReArm Europe Plan, a project that aims to invest 800 billion euros (C$1.3 trillion) in independent defense investments in the coming years. For the first time since 1982, NATO has chosen a non-Boeing aircraft as the alliance's common surveillance platform. Last month, NATO's Support and Procurement Agency chose Canada's Bombardier and the Swedish Saab corporation to replace the fleet of Boeing AWAC (airborne warning and control) aircraft.
Military Shifts
Last October, Sweden and Ukraine entered into talks for the purchase of as many as 150 of Sweden's Saab Gripen-E fighter jets. A few weeks later, France and Ukraine entered into a deal to provide Kyiv with 100 French Rafale F4 fighter jets, along with advanced air defense systems.
Inflection Points
That Trump's America is deliberately forfeiting its role as the leader of the free world while Xi Jinping's China has aggressively asserted itself with impunity is not just Democratic party sloganeering. There have been several inflection points along the way.
- On June 30, 2020, with the imposition of its cruel National Security Law, Beijing finally crushed a massive pro-democracy uprising in Hong Kong.
- On Feb. 24, 2022, after having gotten away with annexing Crimea and occupying the Donbas region in 2014, Beijing ally Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas launched its gruesome invasion of southern Israel in alliance with Hezbollah rocketeers in Lebanon and Houthi missile brigades in Yemen, aided and abetted by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
- On Dec. 8, 2024, a rebel coalition led by Ahmed al-Sharaa overthrew the bloodthirsty Baathist regime of Putin ally and Khomeinist satrap Bashar Assad. His regime's scorched-earth repressions over 13 years of civil war left hundreds of thousands dead and millions scattered as refugees.
These events underscore the shifting balance of power as China expands its influence and the United States retreats from its traditional role as the leader of the free world.
