Alberta Separation Could Trigger Mass Exodus, Poll Reveals
A new poll from the Angus Reid Institute has uncovered a startling potential consequence of Alberta separation from Canada: a massive exodus of residents who oppose independence. The findings suggest this population flight could make Quebec's historical departures during its sovereignty debates appear minor by comparison.
Poll Reveals Dramatic Departure Intentions
The survey indicates that among the two-thirds of Albertans who would vote to remain in Canada, the vast majority would not stay in an independent Alberta. Specifically, three-quarters of this group say they would move to another part of Canada, while a smaller percentage would relocate internationally. Only 23 percent of those opposed to separation indicate they would remain in the province if it became independent.
This represents a significant portion of Alberta's population, as 63 percent of respondents overall expressed opposition to separation. The pollster notes that "Alberta would risk losing a significant portion of its population" if separation became a serious reality.
Comparing Historical Precedents
The potential Alberta exodus differs fundamentally from Quebec's experience during its sovereignty referendums. While Quebec's departures peaked at approximately 30,000 people annually in the late 1970s, primarily from the Anglo community, Alberta's situation presents different dynamics.
Francophone Quebecers maintained strong cultural and linguistic ties to their province regardless of political preferences. In contrast, most Albertans could relocate to other Canadian regions without similar cultural barriers, potentially facilitating a much larger migration.
Economic Implications Beyond Population
The poll highlights concerns extending beyond population numbers. The departure of both personal and corporate wealth could prove particularly damaging to an independent Alberta's economy. Historical evidence from Quebec suggests capital and company relocations often cause more significant economic harm than population movements alone.
This economic dimension adds another layer of complexity to the separation debate, as Alberta's resource wealth and corporate presence represent crucial economic pillars that could be jeopardized by independence.
Current Political Landscape
Despite the dramatic potential consequences revealed by the poll, separatism remains a minority position among Albertans. Only eight percent of respondents would definitely vote to leave Canada, with another 21 percent leaning in that direction but remaining unconvinced.
Conversely, 57 percent would definitely vote to stay in Canada, with an additional eight percent leaning toward remaining. Federalist support appears larger, stronger, and more persistent than separatist sentiment according to the poll data.
Persuadable Voters and Key Arguments
The survey reveals interesting nuances among those leaning toward remaining in Canada. Many in this group find certain separatist arguments compelling, particularly regarding Alberta's contributions to Confederation and control over provincial resources.
Specifically, 88 percent of "lean stay" respondents acknowledge Alberta gives more than it receives in Confederation, while 79 percent see merit in Alberta controlling all its own resources. These findings suggest the political landscape could shift if separatists effectively leverage these concerns.
The Angus Reid poll provides crucial insights into Alberta's complex political dynamics, revealing both the potential consequences of separation and the current state of public opinion on this contentious issue.
