Trump's Crucial Non-College Voter Base Shows Dramatic Decline in Support
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten has identified a significant reversal among voters without a college degree, a demographic that was instrumental in securing Donald Trump's second term in office. Enten described this shift as a major "switcheroo" that has substantial implications for the upcoming political landscape.
Approval Ratings in Free Fall Among Key Demographic
According to Enten's analysis, President Trump's approval numbers with non-college educated voters are "absolutely collapsing" as his net approval rating with this group has cratered to negative nine percentage points. This represents a remarkable decline from the 2024 election cycle, when this same demographic favored Trump over then-Vice President Kamala Harris by a substantial margin of fourteen points.
Republican Congressional Advantage Shrinks Significantly
The data reveals that the Republican Party's traditional advantage with non-college voters has taken a dramatic plunge. Based on CNN exit polling and Enten's data aggregation, Republicans now hold only a slim four-point edge over Democrats when it comes to non-college voters' preferences for Congress in the upcoming November midterms.
This represents a substantial dip from the 2024 election, when the GOP enjoyed a much more comfortable thirteen-point advantage over Democrats with this crucial voting bloc.
Analyst Warns of Insufficient Lead for Republicans
Enten emphasized the seriousness of this development for Trump and the Republican Party, stating that "a four-point lead among non-college voters is not anywhere close to being good enough because Democrats are dominating among voters with a college degree."
The analyst further explained the shifting political landscape, noting that "at this point, the Democratic base with college voters is rising and the Republican base with non-college voters is collapsing."
Economic Promises Versus Reality
CNN's Kate Bolduan contributed additional context to the analysis, recalling that President Trump had pledged to bring back manufacturing jobs during his 2024 campaign. Enten identified what he called a "bit of a problem" with this promise, pointing to data showing a loss of sixty-three thousand manufacturing jobs since January of the previous year.
The data analyst noted there has been an "even larger collapse" in manufacturing employment since the president's "Liberation Day" announcement, leading him to conclude that "what we're dealing with is a Donald Trump message that is not actually meeting the reality."
This comprehensive analysis suggests significant challenges for the Republican Party as they approach the midterm elections, with their traditional base of support among non-college educated voters showing unprecedented erosion that could reshape the political landscape in November.
