A surprising political narrative is emerging in Quebec as sovereigntist leaders attempt to reframe the geopolitical landscape for voters. Despite deep-seated unpopularity for U.S. President Donald Trump in the province, prominent figures within the separatist movement are now portraying the American superpower as a lesser threat to Quebec's future than the Canadian federation. This strategic pivot comes ahead of a potential referendum push following the October 2026 provincial election.
Historical Context: A Longstanding American Affinity
The current rhetoric finds roots in a long history of Quebec nationalist admiration for the American political model. The analysis points to historical figures like René Lévesque, who in 1944 chose to serve as a correspondent for the U.S. Office of War Information over enlisting in the Canadian army. Lévesque, who later became Premier and led the 1980 sovereignty referendum, exemplified a preference for the American system over the British and English-Canadian frameworks.
This tradition extends back to the 19th century with Louis-Joseph Papineau, who supported annexation by the United States, believing it to be more democratic. In recent decades, Quebec separatist politicians have consistently championed free-trade agreements with the U.S., viewing economic integration as beneficial rather than threatening.
The Modern Paradox: Embracing an Unpopular President
The contemporary stance presents a clear paradox. Polling data, including a Léger poll from last year, reveals overwhelming dislike for President Trump in Quebec. During the 2024 presidential election, 76% of Quebecers preferred Kamala Harris, with that number soaring to 90% among Bloc Québécois and Parti Québécois voters.
Yet, sovereigntist leaders are actively downplaying the perceived danger from the south. In a recent year-end interview, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet asserted that Canadian federalism constitutes a "more significant threat to Quebec" than Trump's occasional musings about a "51st state." Blanchet dismissed the annexation narrative as unfounded.
This view is echoed by influential voices like columnist Mathieu Bock-Côté, who questioned whether Quebecers understand that "our membership in Canada is far more dangerous for our people than a cordial relationship with the United States." He speculated that an independent Quebec, offering favorable energy deals and military cooperation, could find a receptive partner in a Trump-led Washington.
A Pre-Emptive Political Strategy
According to the analysis, this rhetorical shift is a calculated, pre-emptive maneuver. Sovereigntists are acutely aware that the geopolitical instability associated with Trump's America could be weaponized by federalists to undermine the case for independence. They aim to neutralize the "Trump factor" before their political opponents can fully exploit it.
This fear is not hypothetical. Federal Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has already accused PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon of wanting to "hand Quebec over to Donald Trump" and weaken the province against an increasingly powerful America. While separatists publicly ridicule such claims, the analysis suggests private anxiety exists that this line of attack could resonate with a concerned electorate.
The strategy raises critical questions about potential U.S. involvement. If the Parti Québécois wins in 2026 and pursues sovereignty, how would President Trump react? Under a potential "Donroe doctrine" aimed at weakening rivals, would he see an opportunity to actively support Quebec separatists to fracture Canada? The influence of the 47th U.S. president is now an undeniable variable in the enduring debate over Quebec's political future.
Ultimately, the attempt by sovereigntists to rehabilitate the image of Trump's America in the eyes of Quebecers—despite the president's profound unpopularity—highlights the complex and often contradictory calculations that define the high-stakes game of national unity and separation.
