A super PAC with a minimal paper trail began airing about $200,000 worth of ads in the Omaha, Nebraska, media market on Thursday. The ad campaign ties state Sen. John Cavanaugh, a Democratic candidate for Congress, to President Donald Trump. The 30-second ad argues that Cavanaugh's legislation to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime mirrors Trump's proposals, claiming he endorsed Trump's agenda and betrayed Nebraska Democrats.
Republican Meddling in Democratic Primary
The group behind the ad, Lead Left PAC, does not have to disclose its donors until after the primary on May 12. However, all signs indicate it is a Republican effort to meddle in a Democratic primary, a tactic both parties have increasingly used. The American Action Network, a leading Republican-aligned nonprofit, ran similar ads last month, and metadata on the PAC's website links to WinRed, a GOP online fundraising platform.
Democrats in Washington and Nebraska are baffled by the GOP's apparent strategy in Nebraska's 2nd District. GOP Rep. Don Bacon held the seat in 2024, even as Kamala Harris carried the district. Bacon's retirement has turned it into a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats aiming to take control of the House in the 2026 midterms.
Candidates and Confusion
Cavanaugh is one of two leading contenders for the Democratic nomination, alongside Denise Powell, a political consultant who founded a group training women to run for office. By attacking Cavanaugh, Republicans seem to prefer that their nominee, former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom, run against Powell. This is confusing for two reasons: Republicans generally prefer to run against the most left-leaning candidate, and Cavanaugh, endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is seen as more liberal. His election could also open a chance for Republicans to redraw congressional lines, granting them an additional House seat and electoral college vote.
“I don’t see how spending to elevate either of these candidates makes a lot of sense,” said a Nebraska Democrat, speaking anonymously. “If the goal is just to confuse people, it’s a great use of donor money.”
Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC linked to the American Action Network, did not respond to an email seeking comment. Lead Left PAC also began airing ads in the Philadelphia market on Thursday, targeting Pennsylvania's 7th District, where their goal appears more straightforward: attacking two leading Democrats while boosting a third who has proven a weaker fundraiser.
Potential Weakness of Powell
If the GOP sees Powell as weaker, it may be due to her roles with liberal nonprofits that Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers alleges took illegal donations from Swiss billionaire Hansjörg Wyss. Wyss donated to major liberal nonprofits, which then donated to local groups backing referendums on abortion rights and public school funding. Powell did consulting work for those local groups, and the GOP may believe they can hammer her on the purported scandal.
Cavanaugh's campaign argues that an “active investigation into foreign money being funneled into local elections” is why “Republicans are so desperate to defeat Cavanaugh and run against Powell instead.” Cavanaugh stated, “Voters across the district have been inundated for weeks with ads from Powell’s Trump-backed allies who are trying to win this district for her: that tells you whose side she’s on. I am standing up to the billionaires and special interests who know my vote won’t be for sale.”
Powell insists Republicans are trying to confuse voters. Her senior adviser Meg Mandy said, “Republicans are trying to create chaos in this primary because they know what’s at stake. Denise is the strongest candidate to flip this seat — she’s a working mom who has fought to stop abortion bans and protect public school funding. She has built the broadest coalition and led in fundraising and endorsements. Denise is the only candidate who can win in November without putting our Blue Dot at risk.”
Blue Dot Concerns
Cavanaugh, son of a former congressman, opened the primary with a big lead according to limited polling. But Powell has led in fundraising, and two outside groups, including one tied to the New Democrat Coalition and another to Democratic Majority For Israel, have spent $3.6 million on ads suggesting Cavanaugh’s election could endanger the “blue dot” — the Omaha-based congressional district that awards one electoral college vote. Nebraska is one of two states that allocate electoral votes by district. In 2024, Democrats relied on winning the “Blue Wall” states plus the Omaha seat to reach 270 electoral votes. Republicans unsuccessfully pressured the state legislature to change the rules in 2024.
If Cavanaugh wins, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen would appoint a temporary replacement, potentially allowing Republicans to redraw congressional lines or change electoral college rules. However, national Democrats largely do not share these concerns. A small number of Omaha-area Republicans have resisted changing the rules, and the liberal coalition in the legislature may pick up additional seats in November. A House Democratic operative said, “I understand why everyone’s paranoid, but if the GOP really saw an opportunity to steal an electoral college vote, I don’t know if they would be hurting the candidate whose election could help them do it.”
