Data Analyst Forecasts Potential Democratic Landslide in Upcoming Midterms
CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten has made a striking prediction that a "huge Democratic rebound" could be on the horizon for the 2026 midterm elections. This forecast comes in the wake of the party's significant victory in a recent Texas special election, which has sent ripples through political circles.
Strong Polling Numbers in Key States Signal Shift
Enten highlighted compelling polling data that shows Democrats with a substantial advantage in several crucial states. In New York, Democrats are currently polling with a "huge advantage" of +27 points over Republicans for 2026 House races. This margin more than doubles Vice President Kamala Harris's victory margin in the state during the 2024 presidential election.
The analyst specifically pointed to vulnerable Republican representatives in New York, such as Congressman Mike Lawler, who faces reelection in November. "They ought to be really worried about the possibility of a blue wave," Enten cautioned, emphasizing that Democratic majorities are often built by eliminating Republican holdouts in states like New York.
California and Texas Show Similar Trends
The pattern extends to California, where Democrats are polling at an impressive +28 points over Republicans for 2026 House races. This represents a significant jump from Harris's 2024 victory margin in her home state. Enten described these numbers as exactly what Democrats would want to see if they aim to secure a majority in the House of Representatives.
The recent Texas special election victory has particularly captured attention. Democrat Taylor Rehmet successfully flipped a long-held GOP Texas state Senate seat, defeating Donald Trump-backed Republican Leigh Wambsganss. This occurred in a district that Trump had won during the 2024 presidential election.
Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer revealed that Texas lawmakers have expressed deep concerns about this development, with one official describing the seat flip as an "8.5 on the Richter scale" event.
Republican Redistricting Efforts Face Challenges
Enten also addressed Texas Republicans' attempts to gain advantage through redistricting efforts. Despite these maneuvers, Republicans now hold only a slim +2 point polling advantage over Democrats leading up to the midterms. This represents a notable decline from Trump's +14 point victory margin in the state during the 2024 election.
"This looks a whole heck of a lot like what we saw in 2018 when Republicans barely won that House vote," Enten observed, drawing parallels to previous electoral patterns.
Increasing Odds of Democratic Blowout
The analyst pointed to strengthening indicators of a potential Democratic "blowout" in November. Prediction market odds from Kalshi show that chances of Republicans taking under 193 House seats have jumped from 8% to 26% over the past three months.
Enten concluded with a sobering assessment for Republicans: "A 26% chance, not just that Democrats win back the House but that Republicans really fall through the floor." This analysis suggests that what began as a Texas special election victory might signal the beginning of a much broader political shift as the 2026 midterms approach.
