As 2025 draws to a close, the Conservative Party of Canada has reached its highest level of popular support since Prime Minister Mark Carney was sworn into office, according to a series of recent year-end polls.
A Statistical Dead Heat Emerges
Multiple pollsters released data in the final days of December showing the federal Conservatives and Liberals locked in a tight race. A December 19 poll by Innovative Research found the two parties tied at 39 percent each. A Liaison Strategies poll from December 22 also showed a tie, this time at 38 percent. Meanwhile, a Nanos poll conducted on December 23 placed the Conservatives just behind the Liberals, with 35.6 percent support compared to 36.3 percent.
This represents the most positive news for the Conservatives since their defeat in the April federal election. However, it is a stark contrast to the political landscape one year prior. In late December 2024, the Conservatives enjoyed a commanding and seemingly insurmountable lead of more than 20 percentage points over the governing Liberals.
The Rollercoaster Year in Public Opinion
The dramatic shift in fortunes began at the end of 2024. A December 30, 2024, poll by the Angus Reid Institute recorded Conservative support at 45 percent, while the Liberals had plummeted to a historic low of just 16 percent. Analysts at the time described it as potentially the lowest vote intention the Liberal Party had ever seen in the modern polling era.
That massive lead evaporated over the following four months due to two pivotal events:
- The deeply unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was replaced by Mark Carney.
- U.S. President Donald Trump declared a trade war against Canada, which triggered a rally-around-the-flag effect that boosted support for the incumbent Liberal government.
A similar dynamic played out in Australia's general election, held shortly after Canada's. There, trade threats from President Trump contributed to a rebound for incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labour Party, defying predictions of a win for the centre-right coalition.
The New Political Calculus
In Canada, the Liberals' dramatic electoral recovery came largely at the expense of the New Democratic Party. Support for the NDP cratered to its lowest levels in party history during the last election and has remained on the fringe since. The Liberals appear to have permanently captured several points of support from voters who historically backed the NDP.
Despite the improved numbers, the Conservatives still face challenges in forming government in the next election. Intriguingly, their current polling range of 38 to 40 percent is similar to where they stood earlier in 2025 when they were considered a shoo-in to win. A February 11 Leger poll, for instance, showed the Conservatives dominating with 40 percent support against the Liberals' 31 percent.
The fundamental challenge for the Tories remains unchanged from the April election: they are competing against a Liberal Party that continues to poll at historically high levels for an incumbent government. The political battlefield is set for a fiercely contested 2026.
