A new public opinion survey suggests the political landscape in Toronto would be fiercely competitive if Mayor Olivia Chow faced off against her predecessor, John Tory.
Poll Reveals Statistical Tie
The poll, conducted and reported on December 23, 2025, indicates that Chow and Tory would be locked in a tight race with virtually no space between them. This hypothetical matchup captures the attention of political observers as a gauge of current voter sentiment in Canada's largest city.
While specific polling numbers and the firm that conducted the survey were not detailed in the initial report, the key finding of a statistical dead heat is clear. The data presents a compelling "what-if" scenario, considering Tory's resignation in 2023 and Chow's subsequent election victory.
Context of a Potential Rematch
John Tory served as Toronto's mayor from 2014 until his resignation in February 2023. Olivia Chow, a former city councillor and MP, was then elected mayor in a June 2023 byelection. The poll, by envisioning a direct contest between the two, measures the enduring influence of Tory's brand against Chow's incumbency.
This snapshot of public opinion comes as municipal governments across Canada grapple with significant issues like housing affordability, public transit, and budget constraints. The tight result suggests a deeply divided or highly engaged electorate, with strong support bases for both prominent figures.
Implications for Toronto's Political Future
Although no election is currently scheduled that would feature this exact matchup, the poll serves as a crucial barometer. It highlights the potential for a highly competitive race whenever the next mayoral election occurs, shaping the strategies of all potential candidates.
For residents, the poll underscores the significance of every vote in a city where political fortunes can be separated by the slimmest of margins. It also sets the stage for ongoing debate about the policy directions and leadership styles preferred by Torontonians as the city moves forward.
