An in-depth analysis of Canadian fiscal policy from 2018 to 2025 reveals surprising parallels between Ontario Premier Doug Ford and former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, despite their dramatically different political rhetoric and public personas.
Spending Patterns Defy Campaign Promises
During their overlapping time in power, both governments demonstrated similar approaches to public spending that contradicted their election campaign positions. While Trudeau campaigned on increased government spending to stimulate economic growth, Ford positioned himself as a fiscal conservative who criticized previous administrations for reckless spending.
However, the actual governance records tell a different story. Both the federal government under Trudeau and the Ontario government under Ford increased per-capita spending after adjusting for inflation from the levels they inherited upon taking office.
Taxation Reality Versus Rhetoric
The analysis reveals another area where actions diverged from political messaging. Candidate Trudeau openly advocated for higher taxes on top earners and implemented carbon pricing, while Ford promised tax reductions during his campaign, famously declaring that government is the worst place you could put your money.
Despite these opposing positions, the outcome was remarkably similar. Under Trudeau, federal tax revenue increased on a per-person basis after inflation adjustment. Meanwhile, Ford never delivered on his promised tax cuts for middle-income earners and businesses, resulting in increased provincial tax revenue per capita during his tenure.
Deficit and Debt Management
Both governments demonstrated comparable approaches to budget deficits and debt accumulation. The Trudeau government intentionally departed from previous fiscal plans by running consecutive budget deficits throughout its time in office, never achieving a balanced budget.
Ford and his ministers had been vocal critics of deficit spending before taking power, with the premier's first fiscal update describing budget balance as a moral imperative. Yet the Ontario government ran deficits in most fiscal years, with only one exception in 2021-22 when inflation-driven revenue created a temporary surplus.
Federal debt soared under Trudeau's leadership, while Ontario under Ford made minimal progress on reducing the province's debt burden relative to the size of its economy. The Ford government's latest fiscal plan suggests this limited progress may erode in coming years.
Legacy of the Trudeau-Ford Era
With Trudeau's resignation in spring 2025, the concurrent era of Ford and Trudeau leadership in Canadian public policy has concluded. The period from 2018 to early 2025 saw both governments dominate Canadian policy-making with strikingly similar fiscal approaches despite their different political branding.
The analysis concludes that both administrations increased government spending, raised the tax burden on residents, maintained persistent budget deficits, and made little substantive progress on debt reduction. These parallel approaches reveal that the gap between political rhetoric and governing reality was substantial for both leaders.
The findings suggest that despite surface-level political differences, the practical fiscal management of both governments shared fundamental similarities that may surprise their respective supporters and critics alike.
