An economist has issued a stark warning about the potential consequences of Alberta seeking independence from Canada, stating such a move would go "terribly badly" for the province. The analysis was presented on the television program Alberta Primetime on January 9, 2026.
The Core Argument Against Separation
While the economist, Moshe Lander, was not quoted directly with extensive detail in the source material, the central premise of his segment was clear. His professional assessment points to significant negative outcomes should Alberta pursue sovereignty. The warning implies a host of complex challenges, ranging from economic instability and trade disruptions to political isolation and diminished international influence.
Context and Rising Tensions
This economic analysis enters a long-standing and often heated political discourse within Alberta. Sentiments around greater provincial autonomy, fiscal fairness, and even outright separation have periodically flared, often tied to debates over federal energy policies, equalization payments, and provincial rights. Lander's comments serve as a direct counterpoint to these separatist notions, grounding the debate in economic forecasting and risk assessment.
The economist's appearance on a prominent Alberta-focused news program underscores the continued relevance of the issue as the province navigates its future within Confederation. The blunt prediction of a "terribly badly" outcome is designed to cut through political rhetoric with a sobering professional judgment.
Potential Implications and Repercussions
An independent Alberta would face immediate and monumental hurdles. These would likely include the need to establish its own currency, central bank, and international trade agreements from scratch. Its landlocked status could complicate negotiations for pipeline access and energy exports. Furthermore, the province would lose its representation in federal institutions and would have to build a full suite of government services, potentially at a great cost to taxpayers.
Lander's warning suggests the economic transition would be rocky and damaging, potentially leading to capital flight, investment uncertainty, and a downgrade in creditworthiness. The social and cultural ramifications of dividing from Canada would also be profound and deeply challenging for the province's residents.
In essence, the economist's analysis presents independence not as a path to prosperity and self-determination, but as a risky venture with a high probability of severe negative consequences for Alberta's economy and its people.
