Unexplained Activity at Iran's Bombed Nuclear Sites Raises Concerns
United Nations atomic inspectors have reported regular and unexplained activity at bombed uranium-enrichment sites in Iran, potentially complicating ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington over the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Mariano Grossi detailed these findings in a restricted report seen by Bloomberg News.
Satellite Imagery Reveals Ongoing Work
Satellite imagery shows work taking place at sites targeted by the United States and Israel in June, according to Grossi's report. The nature of this activity remains unknown to inspectors, who have been blocked from making examinations since the 12-day conflict that damaged these facilities.
The IAEA has been unable to verify the state and location of Iran's inventory of near-bomb-grade uranium for more than eight months, creating significant gaps in nuclear monitoring. Ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear program are scheduled to resume next week.
Diplomatic Efforts and Access Issues
Grossi met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva last week in an attempt to resolve the standoff between Iran and IAEA inspectors over access to nuclear facilities. In his 12-page report, Grossi emphasized that "the agency's loss of continuity of knowledge over all previously declared nuclear material at affected facilities in Iran needs to be addressed with the utmost urgency."
IAEA diplomats will convene next week in Vienna to discuss Iran, with technical talks between envoys from Tehran and Washington expected to take place on the sidelines. Grossi is banking on successful US-Iran negotiations to win back access to the damaged sites, writing in his report that "a successful outcome of these negotiations would have a positive impact on the effective implementation of safeguards."
Military Context and Negotiation Challenges
The negotiations occur against a backdrop of repeated threats of military action, with the United States amassing its largest concentration of military force in the Middle East in more than two decades. New satellite images reveal that should military action occur, planners would face a dispersed and partially concealed set of targets with little guarantee of success.
While US air power could destroy buildings, non-proliferation specialists note it cannot eliminate Iran's scientific expertise, stockpiled material, or political will to rebuild. The newest IAEA report reinforces these concerns, with inspectors using satellite imagery to observe "regular vehicular activity" near sites where monitors believe enriched uranium is stored.
Additional Observations and Regional Tensions
Additional activities have been observed at Iran's enrichment facilities in Natanz and Fordow. Meanwhile, Iran has continued to allow IAEA inspectors into undamaged facilities, including reactors in Bushehr and Tehran, creating an uneven inspection landscape.
The United States and Iran held a third round of talks aimed at reaching an agreement over Tehran's atomic activities recently. A person familiar with Washington's position indicated that US special envoy Steve Witkoff and other officials left Geneva disappointed with the progress, while officials from Iran and mediator Oman were more upbeat about the discussions.
These developments come as the IAEA faces unprecedented challenges in monitoring Iran's nuclear program, with the combination of damaged facilities, restricted access, and unexplained activities creating significant obstacles to verifying compliance with international agreements.
