Iran Suggests Guard Mined Strait of Hormuz Amid Ceasefire Tensions
Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart on Thursday suggesting the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard deployed sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz during the recent conflict. This move appears to be a strategic message aimed at pressuring the United States, as uncertainty looms over a days-old two-week ceasefire and further negotiations are anticipated in Pakistan.
Ceasefire Holds Amid Conflicting Claims
The shaky ceasefire has been largely maintained between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, although Tehran and Washington have provided vastly different explanations of the initial terms. Israel insists the agreement does not apply to their war against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and has escalated deadly strikes there, leading Iran to claim violations of the deal. Meanwhile, Iran stated it secured agreement to control the Strait of Hormuz, charge tolls, and enrich uranium, while former U.S. President Donald Trump asserted the deal required reopening the strait and Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile.
Chart Details and Maritime Implications
The chart of the Strait of Hormuz was released by the ISNA news agency and Tasnim, which is believed to have close ties to the Revolutionary Guard. It displayed a large circle marked "danger zone" in Farsi over the Traffic Separation Scheme, the standard route for ships through the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas once passed. The chart recommended ships travel further north through waters closer to Iran's mainland near Larak Island, a route observed during the war. Dated from February 28 to April 9, it remains unclear if the Guard has cleared any mining on this route since then.
Iran Outlines Conditions for Strait Access
Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, declared that his country will allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with "international norms and international law" once the United States ends its "aggression" in the Middle East and Israel ceases attacks on Lebanon. In a BBC interview on Thursday, Khatibzadeh explained that Iran closed the strait after Israel committed an "intentional grave violation of the ceasefire." He emphasized, "We have shown to everybody that energy security is pivotal for Iran, is pivotal for this body of water in the Persian Gulf, and we are going to be abided by the international norms and international law."
Market Reactions and Shipping Data
Oil prices surged again to above $97 a barrel, and Asian stocks traded lower on Thursday due to skepticism over the ceasefire. Brent crude, the international standard, increased by 2.9% to $97.46 per barrel, having briefly fallen below $92 after the temporary ceasefire announcement. Ship-tracking data from Kpler indicated only four vessels with their Automatic Identification System trackers on passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, the first day of the ceasefire. However, this excludes so-called "dark fleet" vessels, which travel with their AIS trackers turned off, many carrying sanctioned Iranian crude oil to the open market.
Trump's Response and Military Posture
Former U.S. President Donald Trump posted a statement on his Truth Social platform insisting that his surge of warships and troops will remain around Iran "until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with." His comments appeared designed to pressure Iran, warning, "If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before." Trump also asserted Iran would not be able to build nuclear weapons and "the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE."
Israel's Escalation in Lebanon
Israel intensified its attacks on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon on Wednesday, striking commercial and residential areas in Beirut, resulting in at least 182 deaths in the deadliest day of fighting there. First responders searched overnight for missing individuals under the rubble. Israel reported killing an aide to Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem in the airstrikes, identified as Ali Yusuf Harshi, a secretary and nephew to Kassem. Lebanon's state-run National News Agency noted an Israeli strike overnight killed at least seven people in southern Lebanon, though the Israeli military did not immediately acknowledge it.
Threats to the Fragile Ceasefire
The violence jeopardizes what U.S. Vice President JD Vance termed a "fragile" deal. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, criticized planned talks as "unreasonable" due to Washington breaking three of Tehran's 10 conditions for ending the fighting, citing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, an alleged drone incursion into Iranian airspace post-ceasefire, and U.S. refusal to accept Iranian enrichment capabilities. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted an end to the war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire deal, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump stated the truce did not cover Lebanon. Pakistan's prime minister, serving as a mediator, claimed the deal applied "everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere."
Analyst Warnings and Upcoming Talks
A New York-based think tank, The Soufan Center, warned the ceasefire "hovers on the verge of collapse," noting Israel's strikes in Lebanon increased the risk of failure. It analyzed, "Even if Lebanon was formally outside the deal, the scale of Israel's strikes was likely to be viewed as escalatory, nonetheless. Israel's strikes can be understood both as an effort to drive a wedge between Iran and its proxies and as a response to being allegedly sidelined in the original ceasefire discussions." The White House announced Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. delegation to talks in Islamabad starting Saturday, aimed at ending the war. Iran's ambassador in Islamabad, Reza Amiri Moghadam, initially posted on X that Iran's negotiating team would arrive Thursday night for talks "based on 10 points proposed by Iran," but later deleted the post without further comment. The White House has repeatedly described Iran's 10 points as false.
