Prime Minister Mark Carney is pursuing a fundamental recalibration of Canada's economic and security relationships, with a high-profile Swedish jet offer sitting at the center of this strategic pivot. The move, which could see Canada diversify its fighter jet fleet away from the United States, represents far more than a simple military procurement.
A Deliberate Shift in Canadian Security Policy
Since taking office, Mark Carney has been explicit about his intention to reduce Canada's overwhelming reliance on the United States for national security. In March 2025, just days after being sworn in, Carney stated plainly that Canada's security relationship was "too focused on the United States" and that diversification was essential.
This policy direction prompted his government to review the $19-billion contract to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets from the United States. While Ottawa must proceed with acquiring the first 16 aircraft, Carney has opened the door to alternatives for the remaining planes, creating an opportunity that Sweden has aggressively pursued.
The Swedish Royal Lobbying Effort
The Swedish campaign reached its peak during a royal visit to Ottawa in November 2025, when King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia arrived on Parliament Hill for a welcoming ceremony with Prime Minister Carney. The visit doubled as a sophisticated lobbying effort, accompanied by Sweden's defense minister, industry minister, and representatives from approximately 60 Swedish companies, including defense giant Saab.
Saab CEO Micael Johansson highlighted the potential benefits for Canada in pre-visit interviews, suggesting that a partnership with Bombardier could create up to 10,000 jobs alongside significant technology transfers and industrial spinoffs.
Navigating the Diplomatic Tightrope
The obvious risk in Carney's strategy lies in potentially provoking the current U.S. administration. The article draws an analogy to new parents trying to avoid waking a sleeping baby, noting that when the U.S. president "gets upset, he gets cranky, makes a lot of noise and causes untold disturbances."
Carney has recent firsthand experience with this dynamic, having been forced to apologize for Ontario Premier Doug Ford's anti-tariff ad campaign. Despite this diplomatic concession, Canada has seen little reciprocation, with trade negotiations remaining frozen and Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc acknowledging that no one is "waiting for Trump to get over his snit."
The Swedish jet offer aligns directly with Carney's broader ambitions to "transform our economy," "build our strength at home," and create greater resilience against global shocks. By potentially selecting the Saab Gripen over additional F-35s, Canada would take a concrete step toward reducing its vulnerability to U.S. policy shifts while advancing domestic industrial capabilities.
This decision represents a calculated gamble—weighing the substantial economic and strategic benefits of diversification against the risk of provoking a reaction from a sensitive U.S. administration. The outcome will signal how seriously Carney intends to pursue his vision of a more independent Canadian foreign and economic policy.
