Alberta's population is expected to exceed seven million by 2051, a 39 per cent increase from the current 5,052,614, according to new projections from the province's finance ministry released Wednesday. The growth will be accompanied by significant demographic shifts, including an older, more diverse, and increasingly urban population.
Migration drives most growth
The projections indicate that 81 per cent of the population increase will come from net migration, with over three-quarters of newcomers arriving from outside Canada. Natural increase—births minus deaths—will account for the remaining 19 per cent. The report notes that this forecast comes after the federal government introduced more restrictive immigration policies earlier this year.
“While Alberta is expected to be impacted by the national targets, it is likely that the impact will be smaller than in other jurisdictions of the country, as Alberta is home to fewer non-permanent residents (NPR) relative to other large provinces,” the report states. It adds that more than 50,000 NPRs are expected to leave Alberta in 2026 and 2027 before a small net inflow resumes in 2028.
Interprovincial migration is also projected to slow but remain strong, driven by Alberta’s relatively strong economy, favorable housing affordability, and lower tax burden.
Aging population trends
Alberta’s average age is forecast to rise from 38 years in 2025 to 43 years by 2051. “In 2025, Alberta had the youngest average age of the provinces, but its population continued to age due to below-replacement fertility and a rising life expectancy,” the report reads. Despite an influx of young migrants, aging will persist.
Life expectancy is expected to increase, with women living about five years longer and men roughly six and a half years longer than today. Within four years, seniors are projected to outnumber children aged 0–14, and by 2051, one in five Albertans will be 65 or older, with seniors exceeding children by 200,000.
Urban concentration intensifies
The share of Albertans living in the Edmonton-Calgary corridor is projected to rise from 78 per cent to 82 per cent by 2051. Population increases are expected in 101 of the province’s 132 local geographic areas, led by Edmonton-Rutherford, Edmonton-Woodcroft East, and Calgary-Centre, each projected to grow by 2.6 per cent annually.
