Prime Minister Mark Carney has delivered a stark admission: Canada will not meet its industrial greenhouse gas emission targets for 2030 and 2035 as set under the climate strategy of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. In a year-end interview, Carney critiqued the previous plan, stating, "We have too much regulation, not enough action." This acknowledgment comes after a strategy that cost taxpayers over $200 billion and funded 149 programs across 13 federal departments was projected to achieve, at best, only half of its promised emission cuts.
A History of Missed Targets and Overly Optimistic Reports
The gap between political promises and measurable progress is not new. On November 7, 2023, Federal Environment Commissioner Jerry V. DeMarco reported that the government's first emissions reduction plan, released in March 2022, would fail to hit its 2030 target of a 40% to 45% reduction below 2005 levels. DeMarco found the plan lacked targets for 95% of its measures, fewer than half had implementation deadlines, and key actions were delayed.
Despite this, the federal environment department, then under Minister Steven Guilbeault, claimed one month later on December 7, 2023, that "Canada remains firmly on track to meet our ambitious but achievable 2030 target." This assertion was widely criticized as unrealistic, given that meeting a 2026 interim goal would require shutting down emissions equivalent to Canada's entire building sector within a year.
Auditor's Findings Reveal Systemic Issues
A follow-up audit by DeMarco on November 7, 2024, painted a continued bleak picture. Reviewing 20 of the government's 149 emission-reduction measures, only nine were on track. The audit revealed overlapping programs that risked double-counting emission cuts, outdated and overly optimistic computer modelling, and noted that recent decreases in projected 2030 emissions were due to revised data methods, not concrete government action.
Guilbeault's response again thanked the commissioner without addressing the critical findings, reiterating the unfounded claim that Canada was on track for its 2026 goal. The disconnect deepened on December 12, 2024, when Guilbeault announced a new 2035 target of 45% to 50% reductions, despite government data showing Canada's emissions were only 8.5% below 2005 levels.
Carney's Call for Transparency and Realistic Assessments
In light of this history, Prime Minister Carney is now urged to demand that all federal departments, especially Environment and Climate Change Canada, provide realistic assessments of Canada's progress toward net-zero by 2050. The latest government report confirms the nation is moving further from its 2030 target, partly due to recent decisions by the Carney government itself.
The core issue remains a reporting system that makes true progress difficult to gauge. Canada reports emissions two years in arrears and frequently revises historical data, complicating accountability. Carney's challenge is to replace what he and critics call a "fantasy" narrative with transparent, evidence-based reporting on the country's climate journey, providing Canadians with an honest account of the monumental task ahead.
