Separation from Canada would weaken Alberta's oil industry by eliminating federal subsidies, reducing bargaining power with the US, and leaving it landlocked without easy export routes, argues economist Sam Viavant in an opinion piece for the Edmonton Journal.
Landlocked Reality Limits Export Options
Alberta has no coastline, meaning oil exports must go overland through either Canada or the United States. Viavant notes that shipping by air is prohibitively expensive, and sea routes are inaccessible. As a landlocked country, Alberta would always need permission from a neighboring country to export its oil.
Loss of Political Influence in Canada
If Alberta secedes, millions of pro-oil voters would lose their voice in Canadian federal politics, making the remaining electorate more hostile to oil development. Viavant points out that Ottawa has invested heavily in pipelines, including $34 billion on the Trans Mountain expansion, and has provided subsidies. An independent Alberta would remove any incentive for future federal governments to support pipelines, potentially leading to blockages rather than funding.
Higher Costs and Worse Terms
Even if Canada allowed pipelines from an independent Alberta, it could charge higher transit fees or impose conditions. Viavant argues that without the need to keep Alberta satisfied, Ottawa could set tolls just low enough to make exports viable but capture more revenue. Similarly, the United States would have less reason to offer favorable terms. Keystone XL was blocked by Democratic presidents despite Canadian government support; an independent Alberta would have even less leverage.
US Annexation Not a Solution
Joining the United States might provide short-term subsidies, but Viavant warns that Democrats, who are increasingly hostile to fossil fuels, would still win elections. As a state, Alberta would be only 1.5% of the US population, giving it far less influence than it currently holds in Canada. Moreover, secession from the US would be nearly impossible, as the Civil War demonstrated. The loss of sovereignty would be permanent.
Conclusion: Secession Would Backfire
Viavant concludes that being Canadian benefits Alberta's oil industry through subsidies, help finding customers, easier shipping via British Columbia, and bargaining power with the US. As an independent country, Alberta would be poorer and its oil industry weaker. He states, "Anyone who thinks the oil industry would do better with independence will get a rude shock."
