A new Canadian study of 445 adolescents treated at four specialized pediatric gender clinics found that only 2.9% detransitioned over a median follow-up of 2.4 years, but critics warn the short observation period may underestimate the true rate.
Study Findings on Gender Identity Stability
The research, published by a team of Canadian clinicians, reviewed charts of teens diagnosed with gender dysphoria who were referred to clinics in Vancouver, Calgary, Ottawa, and Halifax between 2012 and 2017. Most participants were born female (74%) and were aged 13 to 18 at referral.
The authors reported that just 13 of the 445 youth (2.9%) reidentified with their birth-assigned gender or discontinued gender-affirming hormones. They concluded that gender identity among adolescents is highly stable within a clinical context involving comprehensive psychosocial assessment and support. “These findings support that gender identity among adolescents is highly stable, and rates of reidentification with birth assigned gender and cessation of hormones are low,” the authors wrote.
Critics Question Methodology and Timing
Critics, however, argue that the study’s follow-up period is insufficient. Dr. Laura Targownik, a physician scientist and professor of medicine at the University of Toronto, said the study cannot account for what happens after youth transition to adult care. “It’s an open question whether the detransition rate of someone who started their transition in 2012 is going to be the same rate as someone who started their transition in 2020 or 2022,” she said.
The study also predates a dramatic surge in cases. The number of children and teens seeking gender-affirming care nearly tripled in Canada and the U.S. between 2017 and 2020, according to the study’s authors. Today, clinicians report seeing predominantly biological females, many with complex mental health issues and non-binary identities.
Broader Context of Gender Care Debates
The study comes amid ongoing policy debates. “Despite there being broad consensus among major medical organizations about the necessity of gender-affirming care, some government bodies continue to raise questions about access,” the authors noted. However, recent Canadian and British reviews have found “considerable uncertainty” about the benefits of gender treatments for minors, leading to restrictions on puberty blockers in the UK.
The study’s authors acknowledged that the findings may offer reassurance to those concerned about adolescents’ capacity to understand their gender identity. But Targownik and other skeptics maintain that longer-term data is needed to assess the true persistence of gender identity in a rapidly changing clinical landscape.
