A recent academic study has provided robust economic evidence confirming what many Canadians have long suspected: the federal government's rapid increase in immigration levels has significantly worsened housing affordability across the country.
Research Reveals Causal Link
The analysis, conducted by University of Windsor graduate student Ali Ghazizadeh Monfared, moves beyond simple correlation to establish a causal relationship between immigration flows and rising housing costs. Monfared's paper, which focuses on immigration from India as Canada's largest source of newcomers, applied a sophisticated model to 21 metropolitan areas between 2012 and 2022.
Instead of assuming immigrants settle randomly, the model predicted their arrival patterns based on existing ethnic networks, using 2011 as a baseline. This method allowed the researcher to isolate the specific impact of immigration-driven demand shocks on the housing market, separate from other economic factors.
Impact Felt from Toronto to Saint John
The findings were clear and widespread. Monfared's work concludes that mass immigration made new houses more expensive and pushed rental costs higher. The effect was observed in cities ranging from major hubs like Toronto and Vancouver to smaller centres such as Saint John, New Brunswick.
"Both economic and demographic factors interact with immigration-driven demand to shape housing outcomes," Monfared wrote. He emphasized that "immigration-induced demand shocks can drive up housing prices, especially in supply-constrained markets." Cities with documented housing supply challenges experienced the most intense price responses.
Contradicting Government Narratives
The research stands in stark contrast to the longstanding rhetoric from the Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Immigration Minister Marc Miller. For years, officials downplayed or denied the connection between rapidly increasing the population and the soaring cost of shelter.
Monfared's paper serves as a stark confirmation that the fundamental law of supply and demand could not be suspended by political narratives. The study notes that the average price of a house in Canada rose by approximately $16,000 per year during the examined period.
The research focused specifically on Indian immigration, but analysts note this represents just one stream among dozens of large population transfers to Canada over the past decade. The formula held true across different housing types, with bachelor apartments and two-bedroom units seeing notable increases in both purchase prices and monthly rents.
This academic work adds substantial weight to the ongoing public debate about the pace of immigration and its tangible effects on Canadian living standards, providing empirical evidence for a connection that was previously dismissed or obscured.
