As the final chapter of 2025 closes, the year has delivered a whirlwind of economic surprises, defying early predictions and reshaping the financial landscape. From a tumultuous trade war to a stunning commodities boom, the data reveals a narrative of unexpected resilience and standout performances. Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, has compiled a list of the year's most compelling and surprising statistics.
Equity Markets Defy Gravity and Expectations
The financial year began on a precarious note. The implementation of Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April sent shockwaves through global markets, pushing major U.S. indexes to the brink of a bear market with losses nearing 20%. However, the downturn proved to be short-lived. In a remarkable reversal, the S&P 500 staged a powerful rally, soaring 35% in the subsequent six months—one of the strongest surges witnessed since 1950.
Even more astonishing was the performance of markets initially hit hardest by the trade penalties. Canada's TSX managed to outperform the S&P 500, a feat achieved despite widespread recession fears and without relying on the heavyweight U.S. technology sector. While the surge in gold prices provided a tailwind, Porter notes that even excluding bullion, the Canadian benchmark still topped major U.S. averages. Mexico's market also displayed impressive resilience in the face of initial adversity.
Commodities: The Precious Metals Race
Gold captivated headlines throughout 2025, setting 50 record highs and climbing 70% to approach US$4,500 per ounce. Yet, it was not the year's top commodity—or even the leading precious metal. That distinction belongs to silver, which staged a breathtaking 140% rally, bringing it within a cent of US$70. Platinum followed closely behind with an impressive gain of approximately 124%.
This surge in precious metals highlighted a broader search for safe-haven assets and industrial demand, with silver's dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal fueling its extraordinary ascent.
Currency and Trade Winds Shift
In the foreign exchange arena, the euro emerged as the world's standout currency, appreciating almost 14% in its best annual performance in over two decades. This strength persisted despite significant trade pressure from the United States, domestic fiscal concerns, and the European Central Bank implementing more aggressive rate cuts than the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The Mexican peso also staged a strong comeback, gaining nearly as much as the euro and rebounding from a slump in 2024. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar managed to rise against this turbulent backdrop, navigating persistent trade headwinds.
On the global trade front, China demonstrated remarkable adaptability. Despite being the primary target of Trump's tariffs—which at one point reached 100%—the country's exports still grew by 5% in 2025, and its trade surplus exceeded US$1 trillion. While exports to the U.S. fell by 19%, China successfully offset the decline by boosting sales to Europe and other Asian nations.
Canadian Labour Market Defies the Odds
Perhaps one of the most positive surprises for Canada was the strength of its job market. Early predictions of significant job losses due to punishing tariffs did not materialize. Instead, the Canadian economy gained thousands more jobs in November than forecast, driving the unemployment rate down to 6.5%. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, following a peak of 7.1% in September.
"Perhaps the most amazing stat for the year was that the number of Canadians unemployed was lower than at the start of the trade war a year ago," remarked Douglas Porter. This resilience underscores the underlying strength and adaptability of the national economy in a challenging period.
As 2025 concludes, these statistics paint a picture of a year that consistently defied expectations. From silver's glittering outperformance to the unexpected vigour of the TSX and the Canadian labour market, the data underscores that even in periods of significant geopolitical and economic tension, markets can find a path to surprising gains.
