A new analysis of Canada's housing landscape has identified a surprising frontrunner for the country's most competitive market, and it's not one of the usual major urban suspects. According to a recent report from real estate platform Zoocasa, Thunder Bay, Ontario, now leads the nation in conditions favouring home sellers, based on sales-to-new-listing ratios from October 2025.
Thunder Bay's Market Heats Up Dramatically
The data reveals a striking picture of demand in the northwestern Ontario city. In October, Thunder Bay recorded a sales-to-new-listing ratio of nearly 107 percent. This key metric, where sales outpace new listings, indicates an intensely competitive environment for buyers. The figure represents a significant jump of almost 27 percentage points from October of the previous year, when the ratio stood at around 80 percent.
Zoocasa defines a ratio above 60 percent as a seller's market, where those listing their homes have the advantage. A balanced market, where neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear upper hand, falls between 40 and 60 percent. Anything below 40 percent shifts power to buyers.
How Major Canadian Markets Compare
The report provides a stark contrast between Thunder Bay's surge and conditions in some of Canada's largest metropolitan areas. Notably, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) posted a ratio of approximately 38 percent in October, solidly in buyer's market territory. This marks a slide from conditions a year ago. The Niagara Region was the only market analysed that was slightly more favourable for buyers, with a ratio just under 37 percent.
In Alberta, the story is mixed. Calgary's market is currently positioned in the balanced zone, with an October ratio close to 59 percent. However, this reflects a cooling trend, down about eight percentage points from the previous year when the market clearly favoured sellers.
Edmonton continues to operate as a seller's market, maintaining a ratio just above the threshold at nearly 62 percent. Despite this, demand has softened considerably. The city's ratio has fallen by more than 20 percentage points since October 2024, a period when Alberta's capital was one of the hottest resale markets in the country.
Understanding the National Housing Landscape
The Zoocasa study highlights the diverse and shifting realities across Canada's housing markets. While national headlines often focus on Vancouver, Toronto, or Calgary, the data underscores that extreme seller conditions can emerge in smaller regional markets like Thunder Bay. The report serves as a crucial tool for both potential buyers and sellers, emphasizing the importance of local market intelligence over national trends.
For buyers in Thunder Bay, the numbers signal the need for preparedness and speed. For those in the GTA or Niagara, more negotiating power may be present. In Calgary, the balanced conditions suggest a more measured pace, while Edmonton sellers still hold an edge, albeit a diminishing one compared to its recent peak.
