In a comprehensive Financial Post video analysis, experts have identified several key economic forces that could significantly influence Canadian markets in the latter half of 2026. The discussion centers on potential real estate price increases, the impact of geopolitical tensions on agriculture, rising bond yields, and optimistic projections for the upcoming earnings season.
Real Estate Outlook: Potential Price Increases
Jason Mercer, chief information officer at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, spoke with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about the likelihood of home prices climbing in the second half of 2026. Mercer highlighted that several macroeconomic factors, including shifting interest rates and demographic trends, could create upward pressure on housing costs across major Canadian markets, particularly in urban centers like Toronto.
Agricultural Sector Under Pressure
Keith Currie, president of The Canadian Federation of Agriculture, addressed the challenges facing Canadian farmers as geopolitical conflicts, specifically the war in Iran, drive up costs for essential inputs. Currie explained that volatility in the oil market has led to increased expenses for fertilizer and fuel, squeezing profit margins and potentially affecting food production and prices domestically.
Bond Yields and Geopolitical Tensions
Earl Davis, head of Fixed Income and Money Markets with BMO Global Asset Management, discussed the surge in Canadian bond yields. Davis attributed this trend to a "tug-of-war dynamic" in global markets, where geopolitical instability, such as the conflict in Iran, has boosted demand for safer assets like Canadian bonds, thereby increasing their yields and influencing broader financial conditions.
Investment Managers Optimistic About Earnings
Brian Belski, founder, chief executive, and chief investment officer at Humilis Investment Strategies, shared insights on the upcoming earnings season. Belski noted that investment managers are "blocking out the noise" of market volatility and are primed for double-digit growth in earnings. This optimism stems from strong corporate fundamentals and resilient economic indicators, despite ongoing uncertainties in global affairs.
The analysis underscores how interconnected global events—from wars affecting oil prices to shifts in bond markets—can ripple through the Canadian economy, impacting everything from home affordability to agricultural sustainability and investment returns. As 2026 progresses, these factors will be closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors alike.
