A long-term downsizing wave could be on the horizon as more older homeowners consider how and where they want to age, according to new research from REMAX Canada. While the shift is not expected to happen overnight, the direction is clear, says Don Kottick, President of REMAX Canada. He notes that Canada's aging population will undoubtedly shift demand and availability of housing over time, but progress will depend on improving access to housing that meets seniors' needs.
Current Demographics and Housing Constraints
According to a 2024 Statistics Canada report, approximately 7.74 million Canadians are aged over 65, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the total population. By 2030, that percentage is expected to rise to almost 25 percent. The REMAX Canada survey found that 49 percent of Canadians report low availability of downsizing housing options in their communities, with an additional eight percent indicating no availability at all. Perceived constraints are even more pronounced among older Canadians, with 65 percent of those aged 65 and over reporting low or no availability.
Only 10 percent of Canadians plan to move to a smaller home over the next decade. Among those aged 65 and older, the number of intended downsizers is higher at 16 percent, while 46 percent plan to remain in their current homes. Of those considering downsizing, 73 percent expressed concern about their options, including 32 percent who are very concerned.
Market Dynamics and Regional Trends
Vivian Risi, President and Broker of Record at REMAX Your Community Realty, explains that many downsizers are ready to make a move but are finding limited options within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). She highlights that this is a broader supply challenge rather than just a downsizing issue. Creating more suitable downsizing opportunities could help ease supply pressures. Downsizers are increasingly focusing on lifestyle, lower maintenance, and overall value, but the GTA continues to fall short in delivering the right mix of housing, particularly ground-oriented options.
As a result, there is growing interest in lifestyle-focused markets such as Prince Edward County, Niagara Region, Collingwood/Blue Mountain, Kawartha Lakes, and even Muskoka for higher-end downsizers. Simcoe County, especially Barrie and Midland, is emerging as a key growth area, no longer secondary markets but primary destinations for GTA buyers.
Impact on Younger Buyers
Risi believes a sustained downsizing trend would have a meaningful positive impact on younger buyers, particularly in today's GTA market where conditions remain relatively balanced but inventory is still tight in key segments. If more downsizers choose to list their homes, it would add much-needed inventory, especially in the detached and low-rise segments, ease competition, reduce bidding pressure in entry-level family homes, and help improve overall market fluidity by unlocking movement across all price points.
Downsizers play a critical role in the housing cycle. When they move, they create opportunities for move-up buyers, which in turn opens doors for first-time purchasers. However, in the current environment across the GTA and surrounding areas, many potential downsizers are still taking a wait-and-see approach. Factors like interest rate uncertainty, affordability concerns, and limited suitable replacement options are causing hesitation. As a result, the full benefit of this potential supply wave has yet to materialize, keeping inventory levels more constrained than they otherwise could be.
At the other end of the age spectrum, demand is expected to continue rising, with 23 percent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 planning to buy their first home in the next decade, according to REMAX Canada.
Tips for a Successful Downsizing
Effy Terry, founder of Organize That, a professional organizing and systems design company serving Toronto and Durham Region, notes that downsizing is increasingly referred to as rightsizing because the word down can feel like loss or have negative connotations. She emphasizes that this process is about aligning your space with your current life, not reducing your worth. Terry offers the following tips:
- Focus on categories, not rooms, so you can see the full volume and make clearer choices.
- Prioritize daily-use items and mobility-friendly layouts to support ease and safety.
- Always involve the person in decisions to help them maintain a sense of control and dignity.
- Capture the stories. Photograph meaningful items or write notes to preserve their history.
- Create a transition zone for items you are unsure about. Not everything needs an immediate decision.
- Measure and plan ahead. Know what will fit in the new space.
- Lead with what is staying, not what is going. This shifts the mindset from loss to intention.
- Work in short, manageable sessions to avoid overwhelm and decision fatigue.
- Enlist support. Family and friends can help; a professional organizer with move management experience brings structure, neutrality, and momentum.
- For higher-value items, consider an auction specialist or resale expert to ensure pieces are handled and sold appropriately.
- Be intentional about where things go. Thoughtful donation options can make parting with items easier, knowing they will be used and appreciated.
At its core, rightsizing or downsizing is about creating a home that supports the next chapter with dignity, safety, and intention, says Terry.
