Cottage Prices Forecast to Rise 4% in 2026 Amid Tight Supply, Says Royal LePage
The work-from-home surge that fueled a rush into Canada's cottage market during the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually subsiding, with some families now migrating back to urban centers. However, a persistent shortage of available properties continues to exert upward pressure on recreational real estate prices, according to a new report from real estate brokerage Royal LePage.
Reversal of Pandemic Migration Trends
Royal LePage's 2026 Spring Recreational Property Report reveals that 35 percent of realtors have observed a shift in earlier migration patterns. Over the past year, there has been a noticeable increase in full-time residents moving back to cities, marking a partial reversal of the pandemic-driven exodus to recreational areas.
Despite this trend, the market remains fundamentally constrained by limited supply. The report forecasts that the median price of a single-family home in Canada's recreational regions will climb by four percent year-over-year in 2026, reaching $604,552.
Steady Demand Amid Global Uncertainties
Buyer demand this spring is largely holding steady, with 52 percent of agents reporting activity levels similar to those of last year. Phil Soper, Chief Executive of Royal LePage, commented on the current market dynamics.
"Concerns about the state of global affairs are certainly on the minds of many Canadians right now, including recreational property buyers, and are tempering demand in parts of the country," Soper stated. "At the same time, limited supply is supporting price gains in many markets."
Factors Contributing to Supply Constraints
Soper further explained that new development in recreational areas remains restricted, and many cottage properties are held within families for generations, rarely entering the market. This scarcity of available listings provides a foundation for price stability, even as some buyers adopt a more cautious approach due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
The combination of these factors—moderate but consistent demand coupled with severely limited inventory—is expected to sustain price growth throughout the year, reinforcing the resilience of Canada's recreational real estate sector.
