For months, Alberta business groups and labour unions have been predicting an economic meltdown in the province while the spectre of separation hangs over Albertans’ heads. Doug Griffiths, president of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce and a former red Tory minister, has been leading the surge of fearmongering. Earlier this month, Griffiths insisted hundreds of businesses were already withdrawing investments from Alberta, or at least delaying investment decisions because of the turmoil brought on by the separatist debate.
The risk of separatism is “already beginning to have consequences,” Griffiths told Postmedia after returning from a trip to Ottawa where he sought to assess the debate’s impact on federal officials. He claimed talk of separatism is reducing “Alberta’s opportunity to lead Canada in economic growth.”
Economic Reality vs. Fearmongering
According to a June economic forecast published by ATB Financial, Alberta is still leading the country in economic growth, job creation, and in-migration from other provinces. It is expected to lead in all of those categories through the rest of 2026 and all of 2027. This suggests separatist talk, which remains only talk for now, is not killing the province’s economy.
If the separatists must stop insisting independence would be quick, cheap, and easy, then the pro-Confederation forces have to stop insisting the current debate is tanking our economy. Neither side does voters any favours by deceiving themselves.
ATB Financial Forecast
According to ATB, under the best-case scenario, Alberta’s economy will grow by 3.4 per cent this year and 3.8 per cent next year. Even if that turns out to be unrealistic, Alberta can expect 2.6 and 2.4 per cent growth. The national economy is expected to grow by about 0.9 per cent this year and maybe 1.6 per cent next.
Could that change if the separatists win a referendum this fall and the province is forced to hold a for-real referendum on whether Alberta stays or goes? For sure. If the province is made to hold a simple “stay or leave” referendum in the future, could a “leave” vote cause significant economic dislocation? Without a doubt. The U.K. economy didn’t suffer much until after the Brexit vote had been won by the “Leave” campaign over the “Remainers.” Then in fairly short order it dove six to eight per cent.
