Conrad Black Challenges Carney's Vision for Canadian Foreign Policy
In a detailed critique of Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent international policy statements, Conrad Black argues that Canada's fundamental challenges stem from domestic policy failures rather than external threats from traditional allies like the United States. Black's analysis focuses on Carney's January 2026 Davos address, which the columnist suggests presents a misguided framework for Canada's position in global affairs.
Questioning the Davos Manifesto
Black examines Carney's Davos speech, which the prime minister apparently intended as a policy manifesto for Canada and other nations that feel marginalized by traditional global powers. The prime minister invoked Czech president and former dissident Václav Havel's concept of "living within a lie"—originally describing how citizens in communist systems outwardly complied with regime demands while privately rejecting them.
Carney reportedly applied this concept to what he called the "rules-based international order," suggesting that Canada and similar countries have been adhering to a system that doesn't serve their interests. According to Black's reading of the speech, Carney argued that bilateral negotiations with hegemonic powers leave smaller nations negotiating from weakness, with great powers using tariffs as leverage and exploiting supply chain vulnerabilities.
Historical Comparisons and Trade Realities
Black strongly objects to what he perceives as Carney's implied comparison between Western international relations and Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. The columnist emphasizes the stark historical differences, noting Stalin's brutal regime, the Nazi-Soviet pact, and decades of exploitation in satellite states. Black contrasts this with what he describes as American generosity—pointing to a $1.2 trillion trade deficit that effectively represented a gift to allies, many of which are already prosperous nations.
The analysis then turns to concrete trade data that Black believes undermines Carney's strategic pivot toward China:
- The United States received approximately 76% of Canada's exports in 2024
- America supplied 62% of Canada's imports during the same period
- Canada maintained a $103-billion trade surplus with the U.S.
- Meanwhile, Canada ran a $31 billion trade deficit with China
- China accounted for only 8% of Canada's imports and received just 4% of exports
Assessing the China Trade Agreement
Black scrutinizes what he characterizes as Carney's modest trade adjustment with China—a swap involving 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles annually at reduced tariff rates in exchange for China lowering tariffs on Canadian canola seed to 15%. The columnist describes this as a pilot project rather than a seismic shift in trade patterns, particularly given the overwhelming dominance of U.S.-Canada trade relations.
Black raises additional concerns about China's political system, noting its totalitarian characteristics, comprehensive surveillance practices, unfair trading patterns, and documented interference in Canadian elections. These factors, combined with the limited economic impact of the new agreement, lead Black to question the strategic wisdom of Carney's approach.
Canada's Strategic Position and Future Direction
The columnist observes that despite decades of efforts to diversify trade relationships, Canada has failed to significantly reduce its economic dependence on the United States. Black argues that Canada's most valuable strategic asset remains preferential access to the U.S. market—a reality he believes should form the foundation of any coherent trade strategy.
Black concludes by challenging what he describes as outdated assumptions about global economic shifts. He notes that predictions from before Donald Trump's 2016 election about China surpassing the United States economically have proven inaccurate, with current nominal GDP figures showing the U.S. at nearly $31 trillion compared to China's $19 trillion. This economic reality, combined with political considerations, forms the basis of Black's argument that Canada needs to reassess its foreign policy priorities and recognize that its challenges are primarily domestic rather than external.
