Political commentator Warren Kinsella has released his annual set of predictions, casting a sobering eye on the prospects for Canada-U.S. relations and global politics in 2026. Reflecting on a mixed record for 2025—where he correctly forecast Justin Trudeau's departure, a Liberal revival under new leader Mark Carney, and Doug Ford's re-election, but missed Pierre Poilievre's federal loss—Kinsella now turns his attention to the coming year with several bold forecasts.
A Presidency in Peril: Trump's Health and Political Fallout
Kinsella's first and most stark prediction centres on the health of U.S. President Donald Trump. He argues that observable signs point to a looming major health crisis for the leader. Kinsella cites Trump's apparent inability to stand for long periods, mysterious bruising and swelling, a high frequency of MRI scans, and verbal patterns that suggest cognitive decline as evidence that "the president is already clearly unwell."
The commentary suggests this decline could trigger significant political instability in Washington. Kinsella posits two potential outcomes: a "silent palace coup" already showing early signs, or a formal move to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the president from power. The consequence, he states, is that both Trump and his MAGA movement are looking "sickly."
Democratic Resurgence and Trade Deadlock for Canada
Despite criticizing the Democratic Party as "directionless, clueless and gutless"—with the exception of his preferred candidate, Gavin Newsom—Kinsella predicts they will capitalize on Trump's weakness. He points to Democratic victories in November 2025 races and special elections in traditionally non-competitive areas as evidence of a shifting tide. He forecasts that Trump will become a "major liability" and suffer heavy losses in the upcoming November 2026 midterm elections.
This political volatility directly informs Kinsella's third key prediction: Prime Minister Mark Carney will not secure a meaningful trade deal with the United States in 2026. The analyst met with Trump during a summit on Gaza in Sharm el-Sheikh on October 13, 2025, but Kinsella argues the problem is not Carney's diplomatic skill.
The core issue, according to the commentary, is the state of the U.S. president himself. With Trump potentially "losing his marbles" and not being "compos mentos," any agreement would be inherently unstable. Kinsella warns that a deal signed on a Tuesday could be torn up by Wednesday if the president "loses his mind" after seeing a critical news segment. He recalls Trump's past use of "bogus 'national emergencies'" against Canada and believes such tactics will be employed again.
Strategic Implications for Canadian Trade Policy
The analysis carries a clear strategic recommendation for the Canadian government. Given the anticipated chaos and unreliability of the Trump administration, Kinsella implies that Ottawa's efforts are better spent elsewhere. The subtext is that Prime Minister Carney should prioritize and deepen trade agreements with other global partners, rather than investing political capital in futile negotiations with a mercurial and potentially incapacitated U.S. president.
Kinsella's predictions paint a picture of a tumultuous 2026, defined by American domestic turmoil and its ripple effects on international diplomacy. For Canada, the path forward, in this view, lies in diversification and pragmatic engagement with the rest of the world while weathering the storm of uncertainty emanating from its largest trading partner.
