Gas prices in the Ottawa area are expected to rise by as much as 10 to 12 cents per litre by Friday, according to industry analysts, as ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global oil supplies.
Price Increases Expected Over the Weekend
Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst at En-Pro International Inc., said Ottawa drivers can expect a three-cent increase on Thursday, followed by an additional seven-cent jump at midnight Friday. The combined increase could push the average price at the pump above $1.80 per litre in the region.
Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, also forecast a hike of eight cents per litre on Friday, which would bring the average price back above the $1.80 mark.
OPEC Dynamics Shift
The price surge comes despite a significant shift in the global oil landscape: the United Arab Emirates, the world's third-largest oil producer, announced it would leave OPEC effective May 1. McKnight noted that the UAE's departure signals "solidarity fatigue" within the cartel, as the country had long been frustrated with what it considered overly restrictive production quotas set by Saudi Arabia.
"It would seem the UAE is tired of bumping heads with the Saudis over production quotas and has chosen to set its own rules, play its own game, with its own team members," McKnight wrote in a note to clients.
The UAE's exit means OPEC will no longer control its output, potentially allowing the country to increase production independently. This could put downward pressure on oil prices in the long term, but analysts say the immediate impact is limited.
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Dominate
The primary driver of current price increases remains the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about one-fifth of the world's oil supplies pass. The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, which President Donald Trump said could last for months, has severely constrained global oil supplies.
Oil prices surged above $126 U.S. per barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since 2022, before retreating to around $114 on Thursday. The volatility reflects market anxiety over the duration and impact of the blockade.
McKnight emphasized that the UAE's decision to leave OPEC will have no immediate effect on markets because world oil supplies remain sharply constrained by the Strait of Hormuz blockades. Until those tensions ease, gas prices are likely to remain elevated.
