William Watson argues that the Carney government's fixation on numerical targets is misguided. Instead of setting arbitrary goals like doubling exports or increasing AI adoption by a certain date, policymakers should focus on evaluating costs and benefits of individual decisions.
The Problem with Numerical Targets
Matthew Lau recently highlighted the multitude of national plans and strategies introduced by the Carney government, including three in one week for AI, forestry, and eye care. Watson's own concern is the government's passion for numerical targets, which he finds reminiscent of Soviet-style five-year plans.
Examples include plans to double non-U.S. exports to $600 billion by 2035, increase China trade by 50% by 2030, spend $2 billion on AI to raise adoption from 12% to 60% by 2034, create 250,000 AI jobs by 2031, build 500,000 new homes annually, double the electric grid by 2050, and set aside vast lands and oceans for nature.
Measurable Missions Are Moronic
Watson notes that in trade, this approach is called a "measurable mission." While precise targets can be used to motivate functionaries, they often lead to misallocation of resources. Reasonable people and organizations do not set arbitrary numerical targets; instead, they evaluate options incrementally by assessing costs and benefits.
For instance, households do not set a target to increase furniture spending by 20% over three years. They ask practical questions: Is a new sofa needed? What are the alternatives? This micro-level decision-making leads to macro outcomes.
Government Should Stay Out of Trade Decisions
Watson questions why the government is involved in determining trade flows. Decisions about trading with China or other countries should be made by Canadians and Canadian companies based on price, quality, and terms. If that leads to more trade with a given country, so be it; if not, that is also acceptable.
In conclusion, Watson advocates for a policy approach that emphasizes calculating benefits and costs rather than chasing arbitrary numerical targets.
