SpaceX made history with a US$75 billion IPO that instantly turned it into one of the biggest public companies in the world. Now it has to win over the market.
Friday's trading will be a critical test for the US$1.8 trillion rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company and Elon Musk, its founder. Even after raising the largest-ever amount in an IPO, SpaceX still needs the market's validation of its ambition to dominate AI and carry humans to the moon and Mars, as well as the company's controversial governance regime that promises Musk near-total control.
IPO Oversubscribed and Market Expectations
The IPO was more than four times oversubscribed on Thursday, Bloomberg News reported. The company's unusual move to set a fixed price and size left bankers unable to capture surging interest, leaving a vast group of would-be buyers jockeying for whatever they can get and potentially setting up a roaring first day for the stock.
Still, the unprecedented size of SpaceX's debut makes the market mechanics more complicated, and the fear of unexpected glitches like the ones that derailed Facebook's IPO in 2012 is guaranteed to keep executives on edge. The first trading day will not only set the tone for future sessions, it will affect the prospects for a pair of potential giant initial public offerings from SpaceX's AI rivals Anthropic PBC and OpenAI.
“It presages a pretty sizable wave of IPOs,” John Waldron, president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said during a Bloomberg Television interview with Francine Lacqua. “The capital markets are willing to finance these extraordinary companies as we build out AI infrastructure.”
Indications of Trading and Potential Trillionaire Status
Indications of where SpaceX shares could open are expected to start flowing at some point after the market opens at 9:30 a.m. in New York. Shadow markets are pricing a blockbuster debut, indicating a pop of at least 35 per cent.
The trading is also set to determine whether Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire, a title that currently just exceeds his grasp. Musk's fortune sits at about US$970 billion as of Thursday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Index and Retail Tailwinds
Among the unsatisfied investors whose IPO allocation potentially fell short of their desired amount are retail buyers. That cohort delivered more than US$100 billion of demand, the majority of which likely hasn't been met. Another tailwind for the stock will be forced buying by index-tracking funds which could generate as much as US$6 billion in demand as they snap up shares ahead of the stock's expected fast-track inclusion in benchmark gauges, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Risks and Historical Context
A large IPO is no guarantee of a standout session, however, and the fragile sentiment around newly listed companies means some never recover from trading below their offer price on day one. Even some firms that soar after their IPOs fail to maintain the momentum.
For U.S. IPOs raising at least US$1 billion, the record for the biggest day-one gain belongs to design software maker Figma Inc., which rose 250 per cent in its 2025 debut, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It gave up the increase and is now about 41 per cent below its IPO price.
