A recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute reveals that Canadians hold mixed but largely cautious views on prediction markets, with strong opposition to certain types of bets. The survey of 1,803 adults, released Tuesday, found that 40% oppose prediction markets—where users wager on outcomes of political events, economic data, and even weather—while 26% support them. However, even supporters call for strict regulations.
Growing Popularity and Controversy
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have surged over the past 18 months, each estimated to be worth US$20 billion. Yet they face scrutiny from U.S. regulators and investors over potential insider trading. For instance, a Google engineer was recently charged by the U.S. Department of Justice for rigging bets on Polymarket using the company's most-searched list. Additionally, some wagers involve predicting casualties in conflicts, raising ethical concerns.
Canada's Slow Adoption
Canada has taken cautious steps toward legalizing prediction markets. In March, fintech firm Wealthsimple Investments Inc. received regulatory approval to offer futures and forecast contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate trends. However, Wealthsimple has not announced a launch date. Interactive Brokers Canada Inc. became the first to offer such a platform in April 2025. Canadian regulations currently prohibit bets on sports or elections.
Public Opposition to Specific Bets
The poll highlights strong opposition to certain wagers. Seventy percent oppose betting on war casualties, with only 11% in favor. Similarly, 68% oppose betting on the death of politicians, versus 11% in favor. Majorities of 53% to 56% support banning bets on corporate outcomes and elections. Canadians are more relaxed about sports betting, with 42% supporting prediction market bets and 34% opposing.
Perception as Gambling
Many view prediction markets as gambling sites. Thirty-five percent agree with this characterization, while 15% see them as a mix of gambling and forecasting tools. Adoption remains low, with only 4% of Canadians having placed a bet, though this rises to 22% among sports bettors.
