Canadian families are bracing for a significant hit to their household budgets, as a new authoritative report predicts food prices will climb sharply in 2026. The latest edition of Canada's Food Price Report forecasts an overall increase of four to six per cent, which could force a typical family of four to spend nearly $1,000 more on groceries next year compared to 2025.
Meat and Poultry Lead the Price Surge
According to the 16th annual report from Dalhousie University's Agri-Food Analytics Lab (AAL), produced in collaboration with other Canadian universities, meat is expected to see the largest price jumps at five to seven per cent. This continues a troubling trend from 2025, where meat inflation actually exceeded forecasts, reaching 7.2 per cent.
Lead author Sylvain Charlebois, director of the AAL, highlights that chicken—long considered a more affordable protein—is becoming a major concern. "Whole chicken prices are up about 23 per cent year to year," Charlebois states. "It's really the one animal protein that has remained affordable, but it's not going to be as affordable as before."
A Cumulative Burden on Households
The projected increase for 2026 is not an isolated event. If the estimates prove accurate, food prices will have risen by more than 30 per cent since 2020. The report calculates that a sample four-person household can expect an annual food cost of up to $17,571.79 in 2026, which is up to $994.63 higher than in 2025.
Charlebois notes the accuracy of previous forecasts, pointing out that the 2025 report correctly predicted a three to five per cent overall increase, with actual food inflation measured at 3.4 per cent.
Beyond the Meat Counter: Other Categories Under Pressure
While meat captures headlines, other grocery categories are also set to become more expensive. The report identifies several areas of concern for the coming year:
- Vegetables: Expected to rise three to five per cent.
- Restaurant meals: Anticipated to increase four to six per cent.
- The "Other" category: This often-overlooked section, which includes pantry staples like dried pasta, sauces, spices, nuts, and baking ingredients, is also forecast to climb four to six per cent.
"I know a lot of people are saying, 'Well, I don't go to the centre of the store because it's all processed.' Actually, not really," explains Charlebois. "If you're a baker, lots of ingredients are there. If you're a cook, you'll find spices there, nuts. We're expecting those products to be more expensive."
Nutritional Equity and Consumer Choice
The report's authors emphasize the broader implications of rising food costs, particularly for nutritional equity. Co-author Sadaf Mollaei, an assistant professor and Arrell Chair in the Business of Food at the University of Guelph, suggests that while shifting to plant-based proteins like legumes is a cost-effective and nutritious solution, it shouldn't be a choice made solely out of financial necessity.
"People shouldn't be choosing legumes or pulses as an alternative to chicken because now they're not able to afford chicken anymore," Mollaei highlights. "In an ideal situation, all of these options need to be available for people to choose from, and then, based on other criteria, they're going to be choosing more plant-based proteins—not because they can't afford it and that choice is taken away from them."
The Canada's Food Price Report 2026 serves as a crucial planning tool for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and families alike, detailing the complex factors—from climate and production costs to global market dynamics—that will shape the grocery landscape in the coming year.
