Habs Mailbag: Lightning Would Be Poor Playoff Matchup for Canadiens
There is a combination of reasons why the Habs have struggled defensively this season, including goaltending issues and systemic confusion. As the Montreal Canadiens navigate the final stretch of the NHL season, playoff positioning remains a critical topic among fans and analysts alike.
Playoff Matchup Analysis: Tampa Bay, Buffalo, or Carolina?
If the Habs secure a playoff berth—a scenario that is not guaranteed—they are likely to face either the Tampa Bay Lightning, Buffalo Sabres, or Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. The question of which opponent presents the best matchup is complex, with Tampa Bay emerging as a particularly daunting challenge.
Following a 3-1 loss to the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night, the Canadiens' playoff odds dipped from 89.3 percent to 80.8 percent, according to Hockey-Reference. Had the playoffs begun on Friday, Montreal would have been slated to play the Lightning in the opening round, a matchup that historically favors Tampa Bay.
The Lightning have dominated the Canadiens in recent encounters, winning their first two meetings this season—6-1 at the Bell Centre on December 9 and 5-4 in a shootout on December 28 in Tampa. Over their last ten games against Tampa, the Canadiens hold a disappointing 3-5-2 record. Tampa Bay's star players consistently excel against Montreal: defenceman Victor Hedman has tallied 11 goals and 42 assists for 53 points in 53 career games, while Nikita Kucherov boasts 20 goals and 28 assists for 48 points in 39 games. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has a career record of 16-3-2 against the Canadiens, with an impressive .931 save percentage. Notably, the Lightning defeated the Canadiens in five games during the 2021 Stanley Cup final.
The two teams are scheduled to meet twice more this season—on March 31 in Tampa and April 9 at the Bell Centre—potentially serving as a playoff preview.
In contrast, the Canadiens match up more favorably against the Buffalo Sabres, having split their four-game series this season. Montreal secured wins of 4-2 at the Bell Centre on October 20 and 4-2 in Buffalo on January 31, but suffered losses of 5-3 in Buffalo on January 15 and 4-2 at home on January 22. The Sabres' lack of playoff experience since 2011 could be a significant disadvantage, whereas the Canadiens gained valuable postseason insight last year, making the playoffs for the first time in four years before falling to the Washington Capitals in five games.
Against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Canadiens earned a 7-5 victory in their sole meeting this season on January 1 in Carolina. However, the Hurricanes have dominated recent matchups, posting a 17-4-1 record in their last 22 games against Montreal. The teams will face off again on March 24 at the Bell Centre and March 29 in Carolina.
Defensive Woes: A Multifaceted Issue
When asked about the Habs' defensive struggles, factors include the cast of players, constantly changing pairings, the man-on-man defensive system, and a combination of these elements. The Canadiens began the season as the youngest team in the NHL, which has contributed to inconsistencies.
Confusion with the man-on-man defensive system persists late in the season, raising concerns. Goaltending has also been problematic, leading the team to rely on Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler for consistency after losing faith in Samuel Montembeault. Over his last five starts, Dobes has a 3-2 record with a strong 2.20 goals-against average and a .917 save percentage, demonstrating resilience with a 12-3-2 record in his last 17 games. Fowler, recalled from the AHL's Laval Rocket, has a 1-1 record with a 3.05 GAA and a .903 save percentage in two games.
The Canadiens have a remarkable 27-1-3 record this season when their goalie achieves a .900 save percentage or better, though they suffered their first regulation loss in such a scenario on Thursday in Detroit, where Dobes stopped 25 of 27 shots for a .926 save percentage, with the third goal being an empty-netter.
Player Updates: Montembeault and Laine
Samuel Montembeault has one more season remaining on his contract with a US$3.15 million salary-cap hit, and it is likely he has played his last game with the Canadiens. Montreal has not dressed him as a backup in the five games since Fowler's recall. Given widespread goaltending issues across the NHL this season, the 29-year-old Montembeault could hold trade value in the off-season, and general manager Kent Hughes is expected to move him, proceeding with Dobes and Fowler.
Similarly, Patrik Laine appears to have played his final game with the Canadiens. He remains on injured reserve but has been practising in a full-contact sweater for nearly two months following surgery for a core muscle injury in October, initially projected to sideline him for three to four months. The Canadiens attempted to trade Laine before the March 6 NHL deadline, with Hughes granting permission for his agent to negotiate with other teams. A deal fell through, partly due to a US$2-million signing bonus due on March 31. Laine, 29, can become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. If fully healthy, his agent could file a grievance with the NHLPA regarding his injured reserve status, but this seems unlikely.
Playoff Overtime Concerns
Fans have noted that the Canadiens are winning games in overtime, but playoff rules eliminate three-on-three overtime and shootouts. This is a legitimate concern, as 12 of Montreal's 37 wins this season (32 percent) have come in OT or shootouts, with a 10-5 record in overtime but only 2-5 in shootouts. The absence of these formats in the playoffs could disadvantage the team.
Prospect Spotlight: Bryce Pickford
Bryce Pickford, a 19-year-old defenceman selected by the Canadiens in the third round of last season's NHL Draft, is having a standout season with the WHL's Medicine Hat Tigers. Standing 6-foot-1 and 186 pounds, Pickford has recorded 44 goals and 38 assists for 82 points in 54 games, along with a plus-53 differential. His 44 goals are the fourth-most by a defenceman in CHL history and the most since 1989. Tigers general manager and coach Willie Desjardins praised Pickford's improved skating and professional work ethic, highlighting his transformation from last season.
Rookie Outlook for Next Season
The number of rookies on the Canadiens' roster next year will depend on off-season trades, but Jacob Fowler is expected to return for a full rookie season. He may be joined by defencemen David Reinbacher and/or Adam Engstrom, as well as forward Michael Hage, who could potentially join the team before the end of this season after completing his second year at the University of Michigan, where he has 50 points in 36 games.
Historical Note: Toe Blake's Number Retirement
There are no current plans to retire more numbers by the Canadiens, but if they do, Toe Blake's No. 6 should be at the top of the list. Blake, who died in 1995 at age 82, won two Stanley Cups as a player with Montreal and was a five-time NHL all-star, later adding eight more Cups as head coach. It is surprising that his number has not already been retired, joining his Punch Line teammates Maurice Richard (No. 9) and Elmer Lach (No. 16) in the rafters.
