The Calgary Flames have found themselves in an unfamiliar and uncomfortable position at the bottom of the NHL standings. After the first 20 games of the season, the team's record of 5-12-3 places them dead-last, 32nd overall, sparking a complex mix of fan emotions.
A Silver Lining in Defeat?
For a significant portion of the Flames' fanbase, this early-season struggle is being viewed as a necessary evil. The concept of 'tanking' for a higher draft pick has become a popular topic, with many supporters willing to endure short-term losses for the potential long-term reward of a franchise-altering player like prospect Gavin McKenna. However, recent NHL history suggests that holding the league's worst record at the 20-game mark is no guarantee of winning the draft lottery.
Learning from Recent NHL History
Since the draft lottery format was adjusted in 2013 to allow every non-playoff team a chance at the first overall selection, the team sitting in last place after 20 games has only secured the top pick once. Let's look at the recent evidence.
The 2024-25 Season Precedent
Last season, both the Nashville Predators and Chicago Blackhawks were tied for last place with 15 points each after 20 games. Their fortunes did not improve by the end of the season, with Nashville finishing 30th and Chicago 31st. Despite their poor final placements, the lottery winner was the New York Islanders, who selected Matthew Schaefer. The Blackhawks drafted Anton Frondell third, and the Predators picked Brady Martin fifth.
The Beacon of Hope: 2023-24 San Jose Sharks
The one recent exception provides a glimmer of hope for Flames fans. In the 2023-24 campaign, the San Jose Sharks were in last place with a dismal 8 points after 20 games. They finished the season in 32nd place, and this time, their consistency in the cellar paid off. They won the lottery and selected Macklin Celebrini, who has quickly become one of the league's most promising young stars.
Other Recent Cases
In the 2022-23 season, the Anaheim Ducks were last after 20 games with 13 points and finished the season 32nd. However, the Chicago Blackhawks won the Connor Bedard sweepstakes in the lottery, with Anaheim slipping to second to select Leo Carlsson.
Similarly, in 2021-22, the Ottawa Senators were last after 20 games with only 9 points. They rallied to finish 26th, which landed them the seventh overall pick, a selection they later traded to Chicago.
What This Means for Calgary
The Flames' current position is a clear indicator that a significant rebuild is underway. While the allure of a top prospect is powerful, the historical data serves as a cautionary tale. Being last after 20 games does not guarantee the first overall pick. The draft lottery system is designed to introduce an element of chance, preventing a pure 'race to the bottom.' For the Flames and their fans, the focus may need to remain on player development and long-term strategy, with the understanding that even a historically bad start is just one step in a complex process.
