The pinch-hit home run that an injured Bo Bichette pounded in Texas last May was the beginning of the Blue Jays' great turnaround of 2025. The Jays had stopped hitting prior to Bichette's ninth-inning homer. They had scored just four runs in their previous five games. No one was looking at them as a World Series contender in any way. That was a year ago this month.
In what has been a rather disastrous follow up to the Blue Jays almost-World Series celebration, the 10th-inning walk-off grand slam by Daulton Varsho on Wednesday night felt a little bit like the Bichette surprise gift of a year ago. Only the circumstances seem so different.
Similarities and Differences
The similarities — which is part of what baseball has become with six playoff positions in each league — had the Jays 2.5 games out of a wild-card spot after the Bichette homer last year. This year, playing worse baseball in an injury-filled season, the American League is so terrible that the Jays are suddenly tied for the final playoff position.
The good part is they are that close. The bad part is they don't look anything like the team that finished the season winning 68 of their final 108 games a year ago — that's .629 baseball the rest of the year. That's 102-win pace. That's more than any Jays team has ever won over the course of a 162-game season.
Springer's Decline
George Springer was the unofficial Most Valuable Player for the Blue Jays last season. He probably had his greatest season, although he did have so many great seasons in his years in Houston. Baseball people use the OPS stat as the best way to judge any hitter. Springer was second in the American League in OPS last season. The only hitters above in all of baseball: Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, their annual initials being MVP.
Springer was second in OPS, second in the AL in the much-valued statistic of on-base percentage. The numbers came almost out of nowhere, after Springer's stats had plummeted for three consecutive seasons. The Springer of this year — too often injured — is not the Springer of last year. He may not become that. As of Thursday, plenty of decline: Springer was 72nd in the American League in OPS, 66th in on-base percentage, nowhere near the threat he was a year ago.
Missing Bichette
How much do the Jays miss Bo Bichette? A year ago, Bichette wasn't just responsible for the pinch-hit home run, but before he went down with a late-season injury, he was leading the American League in hits. He wound up second in the AL in hits and second in batting average. Batting average may not be everyone's favourite statistic anymore and neither is RBIs, but the season ended with Bichette finishing second in the AL in batting and best on the team in RBIs. Bichette led the Jays with 94 RBIs, which was 10 more than Springer and 10 more than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who became a playoff giant after a so-so regular season.
So right now, the Jays are playing with Springer — just not the Springer of last year. And they don't have Bichette near the top of their lineup, he's in New York. And Guerrero is looking too much like the highest-paid singles hitter in baseball. And Alejandro Kirk, who does a lot of everything for the Jays, has missed most of the first quarter of this MLB season.
Offensive Numbers
The Jays had four of the top 17 OBP hitters in the league last year: The rest of the American League East combined had two. This year, the Jays have one hitter in the Top 40 in on-base percentage in the AL — and that's Guerrero Jr., who ranks 14th, down from third last year.
The offence right now is more reminiscent of the offence of 2024 than it is of last year. Last season, the everyman Jays shocked all of baseball, finishing second in runs scored, third in doubles, sixth in home runs, first in batting average, first in on-base percentage and second in OPS. Right now, the Jays head into Detroit for a weekend series with the Tigers, sitting 13th in runs scored, eighth in doubles, 11th in home runs, fourth in batting average, 15th in on-base percentage, 12th in OPS. Those aren't exactly contending numbers.
Bichette's home run of a year ago — not the one he hit in Game 7 of the World Series — seemed to change the way the Blue Jays played. It was the good fortune moment of an unforgettable season. It's doubtful at this time that the Varsho opposite-field, walk-off grand slam can do the same.
