The Toronto Raptors have turned a significant corner, posting a 43-41 record in the 2025 calendar year. This marks a dramatic improvement from their 20-63 performance in 2024 and the 37-41 finish in 2023. As 2026 begins, the team's ambitions are set even higher, with a clear focus on securing a playoff berth in a less formidable Eastern Conference.
A Rebuild Accelerated by Opportunity
While head coach Darko Rajakovic frames the current season as Year 2 of a rebuild, external factors have hastened the timeline. The seamless integration of star forward Brandon Ingram has been transformative, elevating an offence that otherwise risked being among the league's weakest. Combined with the relative openness of the East, the Raptors now find themselves in a position where missing the play-in tournament would require a collapse.
There is a tangible possibility of finishing in the top six to avoid the play-in altogether, which would secure Toronto's first direct playoff entry since the 2021-22 season. Health remains a key variable, particularly the status of centre Jakob Poeltl. A fully fit roster could make the Raptors a dangerous opponent for most East teams, with perhaps only the conference-leading Detroit Pistons or a New York Knicks squad that has dominated them posing insurmountable challenges.
Critical Homestand Against a Struggling Foe
The immediate test comes in the form of a rare consecutive home-stand against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday, January 3, and Monday, January 5, 2026. These games represent a prime opportunity for Toronto to create distance in the standings before navigating a much more difficult portion of their schedule.
Following the Hawks series, the Raptors face a gauntlet: road games against the Charlotte Hornets and Boston Celtics, a two-game set at home versus the surging Philadelphia 76ers, and a matchup with the Indiana Pacers. A brutal Western Conference road trip then awaits, featuring games against the LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Portland Trail Blazers, and the championship-favourite Oklahoma City Thunder.
The difficulty is quantifiable. According to Tankathon.com, Toronto faces the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in the NBA and the third-hardest in the Eastern Conference. Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .508. The team's record against above-.500 opponents (8-9) and Western Conference teams (3-5) will need to improve to meet their postseason goals.
Hawks at a Crossroads
The Atlanta Hawks, once a feared opponent, arrive in Toronto in a state of flux. After a strong 13-7 run through October and November, the team has plummeted, going 3-11 in recent weeks to fall to 10th in the East. Their season opener was a 138-118 drubbing by these same Raptors.
The franchise's future is clouded by the situation surrounding former cornerstone Trae Young. The team is just 2-8 with him in the lineup this season, and he is currently injured, though he may return for one of the Toronto games. With no contract extension agreed upon, Young could be traded before the February deadline or become a free agent in the summer.
In his absence, Jalen Johnson has emerged as Atlanta's new leader, averaging 24 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.4 assists, putting him on track for his first All-Star selection. However, a compelling subplot is the breakout of Toronto native Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The free-agent signing is a frontrunner for the Most Improved Player award, boosting his average from 9.4 points last season to 20.3 points this year while maintaining strong defence. His 30-point performance against his cousin, MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, less than a week ago underscored his arrival as a key piece of Atlanta's potential post-Young future.
For the Raptors, these games against a vulnerable Hawks team are not just about two wins in the column. They are about building momentum and securing crucial buffer before the storm of a demanding schedule hits, setting the tone for a 2026 that the franchise hopes will end in a long-awaited playoff return.
