The Edmonton Oilers face daunting odds to win the Stanley Cup, according to the NHL analytics site Moneypuck. After a 4-1 victory over the Anaheim Ducks in Game 5, the Oilers have a 29.9% chance of winning their first-round series, but only a 12.7% chance of advancing to the Western Conference Final. Their odds of reaching the Stanley Cup Final stand at 5.2%, with a mere 2.3% chance of hoisting the trophy.
Series Performance and Defensive Woes
Despite the Game 5 win, the Oilers have struggled defensively throughout the series. They are allowing 16.4 Grade A shots per game, the second highest in a playoff series since 2022, when they gave up 18.3 per game against the Colorado Avalanche. High-danger shots against are at 9.2 per game, also second only to that 2022 series (9.5). When playing well, Edmonton limits opponents to 12 Grade A shots and six high-danger shots per game, a mark they have achieved only once in five playoff games.
Injury Concerns and Key Players
For the Oilers to make a deep run, several injured stars must recover quickly. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Jason Dickinson are all playing through ailments. Additionally, the team needs a monumental commitment to championship-level defense, consistent goaltending from Connor Ingram and Tristan Jarry, and improved performances from struggling players like Matt Savoie, Jack Roslovic, Darnell Nurse, Josh Samanski, Colton Dach, Trent Frederic, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Historical Context and Hope
Only once in the McDavid/Draisaitl era have the Oilers won a series with a negative Grade A shot differential, in 2024 against Dallas when Stuart Skinner excelled. While the odds are long, a turnaround is possible. As David Staples notes, 'It's unlikely. But I'm saying there's a chance.'
