A new poll suggests that Ontario Premier Doug Ford would secure a majority government if an election were held today, despite a series of recent controversies that have dominated headlines. The Leger poll conducted for Postmedia between May 8 and May 11 surveyed 1,003 adults in Ontario and found that 39% would support Ford's Progressive Conservative Party, while 34% would back the leaderless Liberals, 17% the NDP under Marit Stiles, and 6% the Green Party.
Regional and Demographic Support
The PCs are leading in every region of the province except downtown Toronto and among voters aged 18 to 34. In Toronto proper, the PCs have 37% support, trailing the Liberals at 38% and ahead of the NDP at 14%. In the Greater Toronto Area suburbs, Ford's party holds a commanding 49% lead over the Liberals' 31% and the NDP's 11%. The Hamilton-Niagara region is tight, with the PCs at 33%, while the Liberals and NDP are tied at 28% each. In Eastern Ontario, the PCs lead the Liberals 40% to 38%, with the NDP at 12%. The PCs hold strong leads in Northern and Southwestern Ontario.
Historical Context
In Ontario's multi-party system, former premiers like Kathleen Wynne and Bill Davis won majorities with just 39% of the vote. In 1990, NDP Leader Bob Rae formed government with just over 37%. The poll indicates that Ford's PCs could replicate such a result. Ford does not need to call an election until February 2030, but he may seek an early fourth mandate. No premier since Sir James Whitney (1905-1914) has won four consecutive majorities, though Sir Oliver Mowat won six between 1872 and 1896. If Ford serves out his current term, he will become the fourth longest-serving premier; a fourth majority could make him the second longest-serving after Bill Davis.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the poll's positive outlook, Ford faces significant challenges. His government has been criticized for the private jet purchase (the "Gravy Plane"), changes to the Freedom of Information Act, and issues with the Skills Development Fund. The NDP's Marit Stiles has led opposition on these matters, but her party remains stuck at 17% support. The Liberal Party, currently without a permanent leader, could see a boost after choosing a new leader, as happened federally with Mark Carney. Ford and his team should remember that voters are fickle, polls can change, and campaigns matter.
