A new national survey indicates the federal Liberal Party continues to hold a significant advantage in voter support, while the Conservative Party has seen a slight decline. The exclusive Postmedia-Leger poll shows 43 per cent of decided Canadian voters back the Liberals, a number unchanged since early November.
Polling Numbers Show a Stable Political Landscape
According to the poll conducted from November 28 to 30, the Conservative Party now sits at 36 per cent support, marking a two-point drop from the previous month. The Bloc Québécois gained two points to reach nine per cent, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) saw a one-point increase to eight per cent.
Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president for Central Canada, analyzed the results. "There is no clear advantage for any party when you look at these numbers to suggest that going into an election would be a really good idea," Enns stated on Thursday. "I don’t see anything positive for any of the two frontrunners to suggest that they’ve got a really clear path to victory."
Government Satisfaction and Leadership Approval
The survey also measured public sentiment toward the government and its leader. Nearly half of Canadians, 49 per cent, expressed satisfaction with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government, while 40 per cent said they were dissatisfied. Approval of Carney’s personal performance remained steady at 51 per cent, though this is down from a high of 55 per cent recorded in July.
When asked who they prefer as prime minister, 40 per cent of poll respondents chose Carney, compared to 28 per cent for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Enns noted that recent political events, including a Conservative resignation, a floor crossing, the 2025 budget passage, and new project announcements, appear to have had minimal impact on public opinion.
Voter Ambivalence and Challenges for Opposition
A notable finding is the level of uncertainty, particularly among female voters. Thirty-one per cent of women polled were undecided on which leader to support, nearly double the rate of men at 16 per cent. "If you look under the hood a little bit, there is a significant number of voters who are pretty ambivalent about all of these individuals," Enns observed. He suggested this presents an opportunity for parties to make their case in the coming year.
Satisfaction with federal opposition leaders remains low across the board:
- Pierre Poilievre (Conservative): 31%
- Elizabeth May (Green): 26%
- Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois): 19%
- Don Davies (Interim NDP Leader): 17%
Despite this, 78 per cent of Conservative supporters believe Poilievre should remain as party leader. In contrast, a majority of supporters from other parties think he should step down.
Enns summarized the current political mood by stating voters are "still waiting for the new government to start to move forward on some of its promises and not really kicking the tires of any of the opposition parties right now, in any meaningful way." He characterized the electorate as being "sort of parked," indicating a period of watchful waiting rather than strong partisan commitment.
