OTTAWA — The federal Conservatives maintain strong numbers in western Canada, but the Mark Carney Liberals' dominance in the east is keeping the government in a comfortable 12-point lead, according to a new poll.
Liaison Strategies' latest weekly tracker poll indicates that if a federal election were held today, the Liberals would receive 43% of the vote, compared to 31% for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. That represents a 3% drop for the Tories from the previous week's numbers.
“The Liberals have widened their lead back to double digits, while the Conservatives have slipped to 31% among decided and leaning voters,” said Liaison principal David Valentin. “That puts the national race back where it has been for much of the spring: A comfortable Liberal lead, with the Conservatives still searching for a path through Ontario.”
The party's poor performance in Ontario remains a significant obstacle for the Tories as they adjust to their role as the opposition in Carney's majority government. “The Liberals are at 51% in Ontario, compared to 31% for the Conservatives,” Valentin noted. “When the largest province is producing a 20-point Liberal lead, it becomes very difficult for Conservative strength in Alberta to offset the map.”
Support Remains Uneven Across Canada
According to the poll, the Conservatives lead only in Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. In Alberta, the Tories have 38% support versus 33% for the Liberals, while in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, it is a statistical dead heat: 30% for the Conservatives and 28% for the Liberals.
The Liberals hold a narrow edge in British Columbia, with 31% support compared to 28% for the Conservatives. The gap is much wider in Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals command 50% of the vote versus 23% for the Tories. In Quebec, the Liberals lead with 33%, followed by the Conservatives at 24% and the Bloc Quebecois at 23%.
“The Conservatives lead in Alberta and are tied with the Liberals in Manitoba and Saskatchewan,” Valentin said. “That gives the Conservatives some regional strength, but not enough to change the national picture.”
The poll was conducted between May 11 and May 23 among a weighted random sample of 1,526 Canadians, with a margin of error of ±2.51%, 19 times out of 20.
