Canada's Population Could Surpass 57 Million by 2075 with Alberta as Key Driver
Statistics Canada has released new population projections indicating that Canada's population could exceed 57 million by 2075, with significant provincial variations expected to reshape the country's demographic landscape over the next five decades.
Three Scenarios for Canada's Demographic Future
According to the federal statistical agency, three primary growth scenarios outline potential population trajectories:
- Medium-growth scenario: Population increases by 15.7 million to reach 57.4 million by 2075
- Low-growth scenario: Population rises by approximately 2 million to reach 44 million
- High-growth scenario: Population surges by 34.1 million to hit 75.8 million
Demographer Jonathan Chagnon explained that "the medium scenario is like the middle of everything" and represents the most balanced projection among the three models. The agency's analysis accounts for multiple factors including immigration rates, interprovincial migration, fertility patterns, and mortality statistics.
Changing Growth Patterns and Immigration Impact
The projections reveal a significant shift from previous forecasts, largely attributed to recent changes in immigration policy. Statistics Canada now anticipates that after maintaining an average annual growth rate of 1.23 percent over the next 25 years, Canada's population expansion would gradually decline to 0.67 percent by 2074/2075 under the medium-growth scenario.
Chagnon noted that "two cycles ago, in June 2024, immigration was going much higher, so our projections were higher" but current trends show "a slowdown in immigration and a slowdown in non-permanent residents." This policy adjustment has substantially altered population forecasts, with the medium-growth projection for 2073 decreasing from 63 million in 2024 to 59.3 million in 2025.
Provincial Growth Dynamics and Alberta's Ascendance
A particularly noteworthy finding from the Statistics Canada analysis indicates that Alberta's population is expected to surpass British Columbia's within the next 25 years, positioning the prairie province as a major driver of national population growth.
Chagnon emphasized that "interprovincial migration is a key indicator when forecasting and comparing provincial population growth," suggesting that internal migration patterns will significantly influence regional demographic shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these trends, creating what Chagnon described as "a marked shift in Canadian immigration policy which put a dent in population growth projections."
Long-Term Demographic Implications
The Statistics Canada projections highlight several critical trends for Canada's future:
- Population growth will increasingly depend on immigration as natural increase (births minus deaths) continues to decline
- Western provinces, particularly Alberta, will experience disproportionate growth compared to other regions
- Annual population growth rates will gradually decrease over the coming decades
- Demographic composition will continue evolving due to changing migration patterns and policy adjustments
These projections come as Statistics Canada has shifted from releasing population forecasts every five years to providing annual updates, reflecting the increased volatility and importance of demographic trends in national planning and policy development.
