Contrary to Political Headlines, Americans Aren't Heading North to Canada
When Donald Trump was first elected U.S. president in 2016, sensational headlines proliferated about Americans fleeing to Canada in protest. These same narratives resurfaced following his re-election in 2024, suggesting a mass exodus northward. However, comprehensive data analysis reveals a different reality altogether.
Sharp Decline in American Permanent Residents
According to new research from the Association for Canadian Studies, the number of U.S. citizens emigrating to Canada has actually decreased significantly in recent years. During the first three quarters of 2025 (January through September), Canada admitted 20 percent fewer Americans as permanent residents compared to the same period in 2024. This represents the lowest admission rate since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
The decline became even more pronounced in early 2026, with only 295 Americans received in January compared to 805 during the same month in 2025. If this trend continues throughout the year, Canada would receive just over 3,500 applications from Americans, well below the nearly 9,100 applications fielded in 2025.
"There is an important gap between the purported high consideration of such an exit and its actual reality," stated Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies.
Temporary Foreign Worker Numbers Also Dropping
The research also indicates that the number of temporary foreign workers from the United States decreased by 10 percent during the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. While Canada's overall temporary foreign worker program saw a 20 percent year-over-year reduction during that timeframe as the government attempts to control the program, the number of American participants has remained largely unchanged since 2022.
Americans Are Leaving, Just Not for Canada
Despite the declining numbers heading north, Americans are indeed leaving the United States in record numbers. Jedwab cited a Wall Street Journal report revealing that the United States experienced negative net migration in 2025—when more Americans left than arrived—for the first time since 1935, near the height of the Great Depression.
The Trump administration attributed this phenomenon to increased deportations and tighter visa restrictions, but Jedwab offered a different perspective: "The reality is America's own citizens are leaving in record numbers, replanting themselves and their families in lands they find more affordable."
Alternative Destinations Gaining Popularity
Research indicates that Americans are increasingly choosing destinations other than Canada. Countries like Portugal, Ireland, Thailand, and Bali have become popular alternatives due to lower costs of living and perceived better quality of life. This shift has contributed to population changes across the United States, with nearly 80 percent of more than 2,000 counties that experienced population growth in 2023 and 2024 watching as that growth slowed or reversed in 2025.
Both population shifts—Americans leaving the country and the declining numbers coming to Canada—are largely influenced by lower overall net international migration, calculated as the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants.
While asylum claims from U.S. citizens spiked during the first full year of both Trump terms, and legislation like Bill C-3 has opened citizenship opportunities for thousands of Americans with Canadian ancestral roots, the data clearly shows that the anticipated mass migration to Canada has not materialized as many political commentators predicted.
